FC Minsk
vs
FC Dnepr Mogilev
Premier League prediction
Our model says: FC Minsk 2–1 FC Dnepr Mogilev
The model makes it 49% FC Minsk, 25% draw, 26% FC Dnepr Mogilev — fair odds of 2.04, 4.00 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: FC Minsk 1.83, FC Dnepr Mogilev 1.18.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. FC Minsk's rating is built from 58 Belarusian Premier League matches and FC Dnepr Mogilev's from 28, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- FC Minsk are 9th on 35 points from 28 games; FC Dnepr Mogilev are 15th on 23 points from 28 games — Premier League.
- FC Minsk have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Dinamo Brest.
- FC Dnepr Mogilev have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Neman.
- Last 6 meetings: FC Minsk 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 10 July 2026, ended FC Dnepr Mogilev 1–2 FC Minsk.
More Belarusian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Minsk vs FC Dnepr Mogilev
Has the model earned this number?
FC Minsk at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FC Minsk vs FC Dnepr Mogilev
FC Minsk
Premier League
- D2-2Dinamo Brest8 November 2026
- L0-4away to ML Vitebsk1 November 2026
- L1-3Baranovichi23 October 2026
- L2-4away to FC Isloch Minsk R.17 October 2026
- L0-1Torpedo Zhodino10 October 2026
FC Dnepr Mogilev
Premier League
- L1-2away to Neman8 November 2026
- W2-1FC Gomel31 October 2026
- D0-0away to Arsenal Dzerzhinsk25 October 2026
- W2-1Bate Borisov18 October 2026
- L2-3Dinamo Minsk11 October 2026
What these results say
- FC Minsk did not win any of these 5 matches.
- FC Minsk conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for FC Minsk had three goals or more.
- FC Dnepr Mogilev scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Dnepr Mogilev conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for FC Dnepr Mogilev had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Belarus Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | FC Minsk | 28 | 10 | 5 | 13 | 35 | 42 | -7 | 35 |
| 15 | FC Dnepr Mogilev | 28 | 4 | 11 | 13 | 27 | 43 | -16 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
FC Dnepr Mogilev
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 62% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: FC Minsk vs FC Dnepr Mogilev
- 10 July 2026FC Dnepr Mogilev 1–2 FC MinskPremier League
- 24 January 2026FC Dnepr Mogilev 4–1 FC MinskFriendlies Clubs
- 29 September 2024FC Minsk 2–2 FC Dnepr MogilevPremier League
- 10 May 2024FC Dnepr Mogilev 1–1 FC MinskPremier League
- 17 February 2024FC Minsk 3–2 FC Dnepr MogilevFriendlies Clubs
- 28 July 2023FC Minsk 2–0 FC Dnepr MogilevCoppa
Leading scorers: FC Minsk and FC Dnepr Mogilev
FC Minsk
GoalsAssists
- A. Sokol10
FC Dnepr Mogilev
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 27 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Minsk the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.83 expected goals for FC Minsk against 1.18 for FC Dnepr Mogilev. FC Minsk's attack/defence rating is 0.51/2.28 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.43/2.2 for FC Dnepr Mogilev.
How the model reaches 49% for FC Minsk to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for FC Minsk to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, FC Minsk's ratings add 3 points and FC Dnepr Mogilev's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 49%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level45%+1
- FC Minsk's ratings48%+3
- FC Dnepr Mogilev's ratings49%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
FC Minsk at home · FC Dnepr Mogilev away
League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: FC Minsk 28, FC Dnepr Mogilev 28.
FC Minsk score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); FC Dnepr Mogilev have let in 9 there.
FC Dnepr Mogilev score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); FC Minsk have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.