Bate Borisov
vs
FC Isloch Minsk R.
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Bate Borisov 0–1 FC Isloch Minsk R.
The model makes it 20% Bate Borisov, 28% draw, 52% FC Isloch Minsk R. — fair odds of 5.00, 3.57 and 1.92.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (15%).
Expected goals: Bate Borisov 0.76, FC Isloch Minsk R. 1.56.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
One-sided: FC Isloch Minsk R. are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Bate Borisov's rating is built from 58 Belarusian Premier League matches and FC Isloch Minsk R.'s from 58, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Bate Borisov are 14th on 24 points from 28 games; FC Isloch Minsk R. are 2nd on 61 points from 28 games — Premier League.
- Bate Borisov have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Torpedo Zhodino.
- FC Isloch Minsk R. are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 3-2 win away to Belshina.
- Last 6 meetings: FC Isloch Minsk R. 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 3 September 2026, ended FC Isloch Minsk R. 2–0 Bate Borisov.
More Belarusian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Bate Borisov vs FC Isloch Minsk R.
Has the model earned this number?
FC Isloch Minsk R. at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Bate Borisov vs FC Isloch Minsk R.
Bate Borisov
Premier League
- W1-0Torpedo Zhodino7 November 2026
- L0-1away to Arsenal Dzerzhinsk30 October 2026
- L0-1Belshina24 October 2026
- L1-2away to FC Dnepr Mogilev18 October 2026
- L0-2Neman14 October 2026
FC Isloch Minsk R.
Premier League
- W3-2away to Belshina7 November 2026
- W3-1Slavia Mozyr1 November 2026
- W1-0ML Vitebsk28 October 2026
- W6-0away to Naftan24 October 2026
- W4-2FC Minsk17 October 2026
What these results say
- Bate Borisov failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bate Borisov conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Bate Borisov had two goals or fewer.
- FC Isloch Minsk R. won every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Isloch Minsk R. scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for FC Isloch Minsk R. had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Belarus Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Bate Borisov | 28 | 5 | 9 | 14 | 20 | 34 | -14 | 24 |
| 2 | FC Isloch Minsk R. | 28 | 18 | 7 | 3 | 54 | 23 | +31 | 61 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Bate Borisov
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 59% today
FC Isloch Minsk R.
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 15% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Bate Borisov vs FC Isloch Minsk R.
- 3 September 2026FC Isloch Minsk R. 2–0 Bate BorisovPremier League
- 9 August 2025FC Isloch Minsk R. 2–0 Bate BorisovPremier League
- 28 March 2025Bate Borisov 0–1 FC Isloch Minsk R.Premier League
- 22 September 2024FC Isloch Minsk R. 1–2 Bate BorisovPremier League
- 3 May 2024Bate Borisov 1–1 FC Isloch Minsk R.Premier League
- 7 October 2023Bate Borisov 1–2 FC Isloch Minsk R.Premier League
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Bate Borisov a 0% chance of the title and FC Isloch Minsk R. 15.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Isloch Minsk R. the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.76 expected goals for Bate Borisov against 1.56 for FC Isloch Minsk R.. Bate Borisov's attack/defence rating is 0.33/1.88 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.42 for FC Isloch Minsk R..
How the model reaches 52% for FC Isloch Minsk R. to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for FC Isloch Minsk R. to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Bate Borisov's ratings add 10 points and FC Isloch Minsk R.'s ratings add 14 points, which lands on the published 52%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Both sides at this match's level28%−1
- Bate Borisov's ratings38%+10
- FC Isloch Minsk R.'s ratings52%+14
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Bate Borisov at home · FC Isloch Minsk R. away
League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Bate Borisov 28, FC Isloch Minsk R. 28.
Bate Borisov score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); FC Isloch Minsk R. have let in 5 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.