Neman
vs
FC Gomel
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Neman 1–0 FC Gomel
The model makes it 45% Neman, 29% draw, 26% FC Gomel — fair odds of 2.22, 3.45 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Neman 1.44, FC Gomel 0.98.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Neman's rating is built from 58 Belarusian Premier League matches and FC Gomel's from 58, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Neman are 5th on 49 points from 28 games; FC Gomel are 6th on 43 points from 28 games — Premier League.
- Neman have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to FC Dnepr Mogilev.
- FC Gomel have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Arsenal Dzerzhinsk.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 11 July 2026, ended FC Gomel 1–1 Neman.
More Belarusian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Neman vs FC Gomel
Has the model earned this number?
Neman at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Neman vs FC Gomel
Neman
Premier League
- W2-1FC Dnepr Mogilev8 November 2026
- W1-0away to Dinamo Minsk1 November 2026
- L1-4Dinamo Brest25 October 2026
- L0-1away to ML Vitebsk18 October 2026
- W2-0away to Bate Borisov14 October 2026
FC Gomel
Premier League
- W2-0Arsenal Dzerzhinsk6 November 2026
- L1-2away to FC Dnepr Mogilev31 October 2026
- L1-2Dinamo Minsk24 October 2026
- D2-2away to Dinamo Brest17 October 2026
- L1-5ML Vitebsk11 October 2026
What these results say
- Neman scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Gomel scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Gomel failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Gomel conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Belarus Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Neman | 28 | 15 | 4 | 9 | 35 | 26 | +9 | 49 |
| 6 | FC Gomel | 28 | 12 | 7 | 9 | 40 | 29 | +11 | 43 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Neman
Chance to finish in the top four · 10% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Neman vs FC Gomel
- 11 July 2026FC Gomel 1–1 NemanPremier League
- 24 September 2025FC Gomel 3–1 NemanPremier League
- 30 March 2025Neman 0–1 FC GomelPremier League
- 11 August 2024Neman 1–1 FC GomelPremier League
- 31 March 2024FC Gomel 2–3 NemanPremier League
- 25 January 2024Neman 1–0 FC GomelFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Neman and FC Gomel
Neman
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 35 league goals as a side.
FC Gomel
GoalsAssists
- V. Sotnikov22
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Neman the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Neman against 0.98 for FC Gomel. Neman's attack/defence rating is 0.5/1.54 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.77 for FC Gomel.
How the model reaches 45% for Neman to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Neman to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Neman's ratings change nothing and FC Gomel's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 45%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level43%−1
- Neman's ratings43%±0
- FC Gomel's ratings45%+2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Neman at home · FC Gomel away
League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Neman 28, FC Gomel 28.
Neman score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); FC Gomel have let in 3 there.
FC Gomel score most often in the 31–45 minute window (10 goals); Neman have let in 6 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.