Heracles
vs
FC OSS
Eerste Divisie prediction
Our model says: Heracles 1–0 FC OSS
The model makes it 51% Heracles, 27% draw, 22% FC OSS — fair odds of 1.96, 3.70 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Heracles 1.71, FC OSS 0.93.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 58% of the time, over 1,389 settled matches.
Edge to Heracles: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 19 October 2026. Heracles's rating is built from 34 Eredivisie matches and FC OSS's from 49 Eerste Divisie matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Heracles are top on 28 points from 11 games; FC OSS are 14th on 12 points from 11 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
- Heracles are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 5-1 win away to MVV.
- FC OSS have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Den Bosch.
- Last 2 meetings: Heracles 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 17 March 2023, ended FC OSS 1–5 Heracles.
More Eerste Divisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Heracles vs FC OSS
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Heracles at 51% here. Across 4,271 settled matches (as of 19 October 2026), 1,048 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Heracles vs FC OSS
Heracles
- W5-1away to MVV18 October 2026
- W3-0Waalwijk9 October 2026
- D2-2away to Helmond Sport2 October 2026
- W2-0Vitesse26 September 2026
- L0-1away to Almere City FC18 September 2026
FC OSS
- L1-2away to Den Bosch16 October 2026
- W3-1Helmond Sport9 October 2026
- W4-1MVV3 October 2026
- L0-1away to Emmen26 September 2026
- W3-0Dordrecht18 September 2026
What these results say
- Heracles scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC OSS scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC OSS conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for FC OSS had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heracles | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 36 | 13 | +23 | 28 |
| 14 | FC OSS | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Heracles vs FC OSS
- 17 March 2023FC OSS 1–5 HeraclesEerste Divisie
- 19 November 2022Heracles 3–0 FC OSSEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: Heracles and FC OSS
Heracles
GoalsAssists
- J. N'djoli132
- T. van Gilst72
FC OSS
GoalsAssists
- M. Hinoke50
- F. Nsingi42
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Heracles carry a model rating of 6.43 against 6.28 for FC OSS. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.71 goals for Heracles and 0.93 for FC OSS. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Heracles rate 0.63 in attack and 1.46 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC OSS rate 0.53 and 1.67.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Heracles a 32.4% chance of the title and FC OSS 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,058 correct results out of 4,279 settled predictions (48%), with 431 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Heracles the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Heracles against 0.93 for FC OSS. Heracles's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.46 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.67 for FC OSS.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Heracles at home · FC OSS away
League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eerste Divisie matches this season: Heracles 11, FC OSS 11.
Heracles score most often in the 31–45 minute window (11 goals); FC OSS have let in 4 there.
FC OSS score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Heracles have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Heracles
- vs Roda6 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 46%
- at Dordrecht14 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 46%
- vs Jong PSV U2120 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 53%
- at Jong Ajax27 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 43%
FC OSS
- vs Waalwijk6 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 38%
- at De Graafschap14 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 29%
- vs Roda20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 38%
- at Jong AZ27 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 27%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.