11 October 2026, 11:00 UTC

Motherwell vs Celtic Premiership prediction & result

Fir Park, Motherwell
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Motherwell 0-2 Celtic.

Before kick-off the model made it 28% Motherwell, 25% draw, 47% Celtic — fair odds of 3.57, 4.00 and 2.13.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Celtic at 47%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Motherwell0%Draw1%Celtic99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

9'
⚽Camilo Duran
Joe Hodge
41'
58'
⚽Benjamin Nygrenassist: Kasper Hogh
🔁Willy Gabriel Vogtout: Ibrahim Said
60'
🔁Sebastian Palmer-Houldenout: Jardell Kanga
71'
🔁Dylan Levittout: Eythor Bjørgolfsson
71'
73'
🔁Camilo Duranout: Haissem Hassan
73'
🔁Kasper Hoghout: Shumaira Mheuka
74'
🔁Sebastian Tounektiout: Jota
78'
🔁Benjamin Nygrenout: Oliver Sorensen
82'
Kieran Tierney
82'
🔁Kieran Tierneyout: Jordan Lotomba
🔁Stephen O'Donnellout: Jake Max Girdwood-Reich
83'
🔁Alex·Lowryout: Tawanda Maswanhise
83'
85'
Jordan Lotomba

Match stats — Motherwell vs Celtic

44%Possession56%
8Shots25
2On target15
2Corners9
1.09xG2.88

Goals against chances

Motherwell0 from 1.09 xGless than the chances were worth
Celtic2 from 2.88 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Motherwell 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. PaulsenG
  • 7T. SparrowD
  • 2S. O'DonnellD
  • 5M. MoormannD
  • 45M. EmmanuelD
  • 8L. FadingerM
  • 63D. LevittM
  • 77W. VogtM
  • 11A. LowryM
  • 71J. HodgeM
  • 47S. Palmer-HouldenF
Substitutes
  • 6J. McGheeD
  • 15E. Björgólfs­sonF
  • 3J. Girdwood-ReichD
  • 13J. KangaM
  • 4Jamie Knight-LebelD
  • 18Tawanda Jethro MaswanhiseF
  • 21M. ConnellyG
  • 19I. SaidF
  • 27M. BoothM
Coach: Alfred Johansson
Celtic 4-2-3-1
  • 1V. SinisaloG
  • 51Colby DonovanD
  • 47D. MurrayD
  • 5L. ScalesD
  • 63K. TierneyD
  • 42C. McGregorM
  • 22M. BaurM
  • 11C. DuránM
  • 8B. NygrenM
  • 17S. TounektiM
  • 9K. HøghF
Substitutes
  • 6A. TrustyD
  • 18O. SørensenM
  • 21A. Oxlade-ChamberlainM
  • 29Shumaira MheukaF
  • 3J. LotombaD
  • 7JotaF
  • 26S. JohnstoneG
  • 23H. HassanF
  • 49J. ForrestM
Coach: M. O'Neill

Form going into Motherwell vs Celtic

Motherwell

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2away to Dundee19 September 2026
  • L0-4Aberdeen15 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Rangers5 September 2026
  • W3-0Dundee United2 September 2026
  • D3-3away to St Mirren30 August 2026

Celtic

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1Rangers20 September 2026
  • L1-3Ferencvarosi TC17 September 2026
  • W1-0away to St Johnstone9 September 2026
  • W2-1away to St Mirren5 September 2026
  • W3-0Aberdeen2 September 2026

What these results say

  • Motherwell failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Motherwell conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Motherwell had three goals or more.
  • Celtic scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premiership table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Motherwell133461521-613
1Celtic1310122810+1831

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Motherwell vs Celtic

  • 13 May 2026Motherwell 2–3 CelticPremiership
  • 14 March 2026Celtic 3–1 MotherwellPremiership
  • 30 December 2025Motherwell 2–0 CelticPremiership
  • 5 October 2025Celtic 3–2 MotherwellPremiership
  • 2 February 2025Motherwell 1–3 CelticPremiership

Leading scorers: Motherwell and Celtic

Motherwell

GoalsAssists

  • A. Lowry31

Celtic

GoalsAssists

  • C. Durán76
  • B. Nygren64
  • K. Høgh33

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Celtic won 2–0 at Motherwell. The model had made a win for Celtic its most likely outcome, at 47%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Camilo Duran 9' for Celtic, Benjamin Nygren 58' for Celtic. On expected goals it finished 1.09–2.88.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Motherwell a 35.8% chance to finish in the top four: 43.1% after a win, 34.9% after a draw, 31.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 31.6%, 4.2 points lower than before the match.

For Celtic the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 55.9% going in: 60.4% after a win, 54.9% after a draw, 49.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 60.4%, 4.5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premiership season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Motherwell v Celtic has moved

First published on 27 Sep at 30% / 27% / 43% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 28% / 25% / 47%: the biggest move is Celtic's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Motherwell win28%▼ −2
  2. Draw25%▼ −2
  3. Celtic win47%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.