Motherwell
vs
Celtic
Premiership prediction
Our model says: Motherwell 1–2 Celtic
The model makes it 30% Motherwell, 27% draw, 43% Celtic — fair odds of 3.33, 3.70 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Motherwell 1.31, Celtic 1.85.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Motherwell vs Celtic
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Celtic at 43% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 1330 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Motherwell vs Celtic
Motherwell
- L1-2away to Dundee19 September 2026
- L0-4Aberdeen15 September 2026
- L0-1away to Rangers5 September 2026
- W3-0Dundee United2 September 2026
- D3-3away to St Mirren30 August 2026
Celtic
- L0-1Rangers20 September 2026
- W1-0away to St Johnstone9 September 2026
- W2-1away to St Mirren5 September 2026
- W3-0Aberdeen2 September 2026
- W2-1Falkirk29 August 2026
What these results say
- Motherwell failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Motherwell conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Motherwell had three goals or more.
- Celtic won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Celtic scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Motherwell | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 |
| 1 | Celtic | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 4 | +10 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Motherwell vs Celtic
- 13 May 2026Motherwell 2–3 CelticPremiership
- 14 March 2026Celtic 3–1 MotherwellPremiership
- 30 December 2025Motherwell 2–0 CelticPremiership
- 5 October 2025Celtic 3–2 MotherwellPremiership
- 2 February 2025Motherwell 1–3 CelticPremiership
- 26 December 2024Celtic 4–0 MotherwellPremiership
Leading scorers: Motherwell and Celtic
Motherwell
- A. Lowry2 goals1 assists
- Tawanda Jethro Maswanhise1 goals2 assists
Celtic
- C. Durán3 goals3 assists
- B. Nygren3 goals3 assists
- K. Høgh3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Motherwell carry a model rating of 6.43 against 6.73 for Celtic. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.31 goals for Motherwell and 1.85 for Celtic. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Motherwell rate 0.67 in attack and 1.54 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Celtic rate 0.92 and 1.17.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Motherwell a 0.1% chance of the title and Celtic 67.5%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Celtic the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Motherwell against 1.85 for Celtic. Motherwell's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.54 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.92/1.17 for Celtic.