Falkirk
vs
Dundee
Premiership prediction
Our model says: Falkirk 2–1 Dundee
The model makes it 40% Falkirk, 28% draw, 32% Dundee — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Falkirk 1.62, Dundee 1.36.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Falkirk vs Dundee
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Falkirk at 40% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Falkirk vs Dundee
Falkirk
- D1-1away to St Johnstone19 September 2026
- W2-1Heart of Midlothian15 September 2026
- D1-1away to Dundee United5 September 2026
- L1-2Rangers2 September 2026
- L1-2away to Celtic29 August 2026
Dundee
- W2-1Motherwell19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Heart of Midlothian6 September 2026
- D1-1St Johnstone2 September 2026
- L1-2Hibernian30 August 2026
- W2-0away to Dundee United22 August 2026
What these results say
- Falkirk scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Falkirk conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Falkirk.
- Dundee scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dundee conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Dundee.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Falkirk | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 6 |
| 4 | Dundee | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Falkirk vs Dundee
- 11 February 2026Falkirk 1–0 DundeePremiership
- 27 December 2025Dundee 1–0 FalkirkPremiership
- 25 October 2025Falkirk 2–1 DundeePremiership
- 8 December 2022Falkirk 0–3 DundeeChallenge Cup
- 30 August 2022Dundee 3–0 FalkirkLeague Cup
- 29 March 2014Dundee 0–1 FalkirkChampionship
Leading scorers: Falkirk and Dundee
Falkirk
No player in Premiership's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Dundee
- J. Westley3 goals
- B. Fink2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Falkirk carry a model rating of 6.3 against 6.34 for Dundee. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.62 goals for Falkirk and 1.36 for Dundee. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Falkirk rate 0.59 in attack and 1.76 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dundee rate 0.59 and 1.64.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Dundee, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Falkirk a 0.1% chance of the title and Dundee 2.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Falkirk the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Falkirk against 1.36 for Dundee. Falkirk's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.64 for Dundee.