10 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Falkirk vs Dundee Premiership prediction & result

Falkirk Stadium, Falkirk
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Falkirk 1-2 Dundee.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Falkirk, 26% draw, 32% Dundee — fair odds of 2.38, 3.85 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Falkirk at 42%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Falkirk4%Draw92%Dundee4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Jacob Murrell (pen)
31'
52'
⚽Owen Bevanassist: Drey Wright
🔁Jacob Murrellout: Finn Yeats
70'
🔁Ben krauhausout: Ben Parkinson
70'
🔁Finley Frank Barbrookout: Craig Sibbald
85'
🔁Ethan Rossout: Conor McLeod
90+1'
🔁Ryan Strainout: Jack McMillan
90+1'
90+1'
⚽Ashley Hayassist: Ethan Hamilton

Match stats — Falkirk vs Dundee

54%Possession46%
16Shots22
5On target10
3Corners10
1.92xG1.43

Goals against chances

Falkirk1 from 1.92 xGless than the chances were worth
Dundee2 from 1.43 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Falkirk 4-2-3-1
  • 19S. BainG
  • 22R. StrainD
  • 15L. NeilsonD
  • 5L. HendersonD
  • 3L. McCannD
  • 8B. SpencerM
  • 16Finley Frank BarbrookM
  • 23E. RossM
  • 28B. KrauhausM
  • 42Owen EamesM
  • 24J. MurrellF
Substitutes
  • 4J. McMillanD
  • 7Ben ParkinsonF
  • 9R. MacIverF
  • 1N. HogarthG
  • 99C. FodreyM
  • 10C. SibbaldM
  • 14F. YeatsM
  • 21D. MeļņiksM
  • 27C. McLeodM
Coach: J. McGlynn
Dundee 4-4-2
  • 1O. GoodmanG
  • 7D. WrightD
  • 4R. AstleyD
  • 5O. BevanD
  • 12I. SamuelsD
  • 14A. ForrestM
  • 28C. JonesM
  • 48E. HamiltonM
  • 27J. BevanM
  • 21B. FinkF
  • 11A. HayF
Substitutes
  • 6M. AkinmboniD
  • 60R. BlandM
  • 2B. HallidayD
  • 47Ashton LeiperD
  • 13K. O'HaraG
  • 3I. OdutayoD
  • 26J. WrightD
  • 77Alfie HarrisonM
  • 55Rory HughesM
Coach: S. Pressley

Form going into Falkirk vs Dundee

Falkirk

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to St Johnstone19 September 2026
  • W2-1Heart of Midlothian15 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Dundee United5 September 2026
  • L1-2Rangers2 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Celtic29 August 2026

Dundee

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1Motherwell19 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Heart of Midlothian6 September 2026
  • D1-1St Johnstone2 September 2026
  • L1-2Hibernian30 August 2026
  • W2-0away to Dundee United22 August 2026

What these results say

  • Falkirk scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Falkirk conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Falkirk.
  • Dundee scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Dundee conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Dundee.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premiership table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Falkirk136342014+621
5Dundee125251815+317

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Falkirk vs Dundee

  • 11 February 2026Falkirk 1–0 DundeePremiership
  • 27 December 2025Dundee 1–0 FalkirkPremiership
  • 25 October 2025Falkirk 2–1 DundeePremiership
  • 8 December 2022Falkirk 0–3 DundeeChallenge Cup
  • 30 August 2022Dundee 3–0 FalkirkLeague Cup

Leading scorers: Falkirk and Dundee

Falkirk

GoalsAssists

  • J. Murrell70

Dundee

GoalsAssists

  • B. Fink40
  • J. Westley40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Dundee won 2–1 at Falkirk. The model had leaned towards a win for Falkirk at 42% and given a win for Dundee 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Jacob Murrell (penalty) 31' for Falkirk, Owen Bevan 52' for Dundee, Ashley Hay 90+1' for Dundee. On expected goals it finished 1.92–1.43.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Falkirk a 37.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 30.9% after a win, 39.8% after a draw, 44.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 44.7%, 7.4 points higher than before the match.

For Dundee the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 19.9% going in: 14.7% after a win, 18.2% after a draw, 23.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 14.7%, 5.2 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Premiership season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Falkirk v Dundee has moved

First published on 26 Sep at 40% / 28% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 42% / 26% / 32%: the biggest move is Falkirk's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Falkirk win42%▲ +2
  2. Draw26%▼ −2
  3. Dundee win32%=

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.