Heart of Midlothian vs St Mirren Premiership prediction & result
Final score: Heart of Midlothian 5-0 St Mirren.
Before kick-off the model made it 61% Heart of Midlothian, 23% draw, 16% St Mirren — fair odds of 1.64, 4.35 and 6.25.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Scottish Premiership predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Heart of Midlothian at 61%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Heart of Midlothian vs St Mirren
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1B. ReusG
- 23J. AltenaD
- 64M. Fagan-WalcottD
- 5J. McCartD
- 18H. MilneD
- 8AgeuM
- 78L. MendyM
- 7C. MillerM
- 10Cláudio BragaM
- 15J. McPakeM
- 21J. WilsonF
- 30R. FultonG
- 6O. McEnteeM
- 2C. BorchgrevinkD
- 17S. FindlayD
- 22T. MagnússonM
- 29S. KerjotaF
- 74R. MatoF
- 19S. GuendouzF
- 9J. WilliamsF
- 1J. ChapmanG
- 47C. RamsayD
- 13A. GogićD
- 53Henry FieldsonD
- 3D. JohnD
- 8R. CarrM
- 48P. NsioM
- 23C. MochrieM
- 30F. TaylorM
- 19Ismeal KabiaM
- 88K. PhillipsF
- 22M. FraserD
- 16L. ThomasM
- 4L. DonnellyM
- 6Louis JacksonD
- 9Eseosa SuleF
- 35Grant TamoseviciusG
- 37C. McEvoyM
- 10SamuM
- 20J. YoungF
Form going into Heart of Midlothian vs St Mirren
Heart of Midlothian
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Kilmarnock19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Falkirk15 September 2026
- W2-1Dundee6 September 2026
- W3-1away to Hibernian3 September 2026
- W2-1St Johnstone29 August 2026
St Mirren
All competitions we cover
- L0-3Dundee United19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Rangers9 September 2026
- L1-2Celtic5 September 2026
- W1-0away to Kilmarnock2 September 2026
- D3-3Motherwell30 August 2026
What these results say
- Heart of Midlothian scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Heart of Midlothian conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Heart of Midlothian.
- St Mirren failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- St Mirren conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Heart of Midlothian | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 26 | 22 | +4 | 20 |
| 8 | St Mirren | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 22 | -10 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Heart of Midlothian vs St Mirren
- 3 February 2026St Mirren 1–0 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
- 14 January 2026Heart of Midlothian 2–0 St MirrenPremiership
- 29 October 2025St Mirren 2–2 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
- 16 August 2025St Mirren 1–1 Heart of MidlothianLeague Cup
- 26 February 2025Heart of Midlothian 3–1 St MirrenPremiership
Leading scorers: Heart of Midlothian and St Mirren
Heart of Midlothian
GoalsAssists
- Cláudio Braga62
- C. Miller51
- J. McPake36
St Mirren
No player in Premiership's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Heart of Midlothian beat St Mirren 5–0. The model had made a win for Heart of Midlothian its most likely outcome, at 61%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Laurent mendy 20' for Heart of Midlothian, Calvin Miller (penalty) 32' for Heart of Midlothian, Calvin Miller (penalty) 50' for Heart of Midlothian, Claudio Rafael Soares Braga 54' for Heart of Midlothian, Josh Mcpake 80' for Heart of Midlothian. On expected goals it finished 3.51–0.74.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Heart of Midlothian these chances to finish in the top four: 81.4% after a win, 75.3% after a draw, 73.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure about where it was, at 81.4%.
For St Mirren the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three: 32.3% after a win, 37.5% after a draw, 43.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure about where it was, at 43.0%.
Read from our Premiership season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Heart of Midlothian v St Mirren has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 55% / 26% / 19% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 61% / 23% / 16%: the biggest move is Heart of Midlothian's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- Heart of Midlothian win61%▲ +6
- Draw23%▼ −3
- St Mirren win16%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Heart of Midlothian's most recent league matches and St Mirren's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.