Heart of Midlothian
vs
St Mirren
Premiership prediction
Our model says: Heart of Midlothian 2–0 St Mirren
The model makes it 55% Heart of Midlothian, 26% draw, 19% St Mirren — fair odds of 1.82, 3.85 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Heart of Midlothian 2.06, St Mirren 0.79.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Heart of Midlothian vs St Mirren
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Heart of Midlothian at 55% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 675 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Heart of Midlothian vs St Mirren
Heart of Midlothian
- D1-1away to Kilmarnock19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Falkirk15 September 2026
- W2-1Dundee6 September 2026
- W3-1away to Hibernian3 September 2026
- W2-1St Johnstone29 August 2026
St Mirren
- L0-3Dundee United19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Rangers9 September 2026
- L1-2Celtic5 September 2026
- W1-0away to Kilmarnock2 September 2026
- D3-3Motherwell30 August 2026
What these results say
- Heart of Midlothian scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Heart of Midlothian conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Heart of Midlothian.
- St Mirren failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- St Mirren conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Heart of Midlothian | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 13 |
| 5 | St Mirren | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Heart of Midlothian vs St Mirren
- 3 February 2026St Mirren 1–0 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
- 14 January 2026Heart of Midlothian 2–0 St MirrenPremiership
- 29 October 2025St Mirren 2–2 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
- 16 August 2025St Mirren 1–1 Heart of MidlothianLeague Cup
- 26 February 2025Heart of Midlothian 3–1 St MirrenPremiership
- 10 February 2025St Mirren 1–1 Heart of MidlothianFA Cup
Leading scorers: Heart of Midlothian and St Mirren
Heart of Midlothian
- J. Wilson3 goals
- J. McPake2 goals4 assists
- Cláudio Braga2 goals2 assists
St Mirren
- K. Phillips3 goals
- Samu1 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Heart of Midlothian carry a model rating of 6.57 against 6.23 for St Mirren. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.06 goals for Heart of Midlothian and 0.79 for St Mirren. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Heart of Midlothian rate 0.77 in attack and 1.34 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; St Mirren rate 0.45 and 1.60.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Heart of Midlothian a 5.9% chance of the title and St Mirren 0.7%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Heart of Midlothian the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Heart of Midlothian against 0.79 for St Mirren. Heart of Midlothian's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.34 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.45/1.6 for St Mirren.