11 October 2026, 13:00 UTC

Aberdeen vs St Johnstone Premiership prediction & result

Pittodrie Stadium, Aberdeen
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Aberdeen 0-1 St Johnstone.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Aberdeen, 28% draw, 30% St Johnstone — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Aberdeen at 42%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Aberdeen0%Draw4%St Johnstone96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

11'
•Josh Fowler
14'
⚽Josh Fowler (pen)
🔁Ayoub Moulouaout: Lewis Smith
35'
58'
🔁Ruari Patonout: Joel Cotterill
🔁Findlay Marshallout: Tony Yogane
59'
🔁Connor Patrick Ronanout: Stuart Armstrong
59'
67'
🔁Matty Toddout: Taylor Steven
🔁Nesta Guinness-Walkerout: Hicham Mahou
68'
78'
🔁Sam Stantonout: Josh Campbell
78'
🔁Josh Fowlerout: Jamie Gullan
Marius Müller
90'
🔁Christopher Caddenout: Afeez Aremu Olalekan
90'
90+1'
🔁Daniel Finlaysonout: Božo Mikulić

Match stats — Aberdeen vs St Johnstone

65%Possession35%
22Shots5
5On target1
13Corners2
1.27xG1.12

Goals against chances

Aberdeen0 from 1.27 xGless than the chances were worth
St Johnstone1 from 1.12 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Aberdeen 5-3-2
  • 27M. MüllerG
  • 28C. CaddenD
  • 22J. MilneD
  • 5M. KnoesterD
  • 21G. MolloyD
  • 24N. Guinness-WalkerD
  • 8B. LyonsM
  • 40F. MarshallM
  • 25C. RonanM
  • 9A. MoulouaF
  • 15K. NisbetF
Substitutes
  • 32A. AremuM
  • 17S. ArmstrongM
  • 26D. HappeD
  • 30D. KleinG
  • 14H. MahouM
  • 23L. MayoD
  • 20T. OlusanyaF
  • 11Lewis SmithF
  • 7Tony YoganeF
Coach: S. Robinson
St Johnstone 3-4-2-1
  • 1T. StewardG
  • 33L. SmithD
  • 19D. FinlaysonD
  • 14M. FouldsD
  • 26M. ToddM
  • 42R. McAlearM
  • 8J. HoltM
  • 2E. AlıçM
  • 11S. StantonM
  • 99R. PatonM
  • 9J. FowlerF
Substitutes
  • 22D. SchmidtF
  • 20R. SinclairG
  • 10J. GullanF
  • 18K. FotheringhamF
  • 30J. CotterillM
  • 6B. MikulićD
  • 23L. ChalmersM
  • 32J. CampbellM
  • 7T. StevenF
Coach: S. Valakari

Form going into Aberdeen vs St Johnstone

Aberdeen

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to Hibernian19 September 2026
  • W4-0away to Motherwell15 September 2026
  • D0-0Kilmarnock5 September 2026
  • L0-3away to Celtic2 September 2026
  • L0-1Rangers30 August 2026

St Johnstone

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1Falkirk19 September 2026
  • L0-1Celtic9 September 2026
  • W2-1Hibernian6 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Dundee2 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Heart of Midlothian29 August 2026

What these results say

  • Aberdeen failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • St Johnstone conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • St Johnstone failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • St Johnstone scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premiership table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Aberdeen123271218-611
7St Johnstone134541720-317

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Aberdeen vs St Johnstone

  • 15 March 2025St Johnstone 0–0 AberdeenPremiership
  • 7 December 2024Aberdeen 1–1 St JohnstonePremiership
  • 5 August 2024St Johnstone 1–2 AberdeenPremiership
  • 4 May 2024Aberdeen 1–0 St JohnstonePremiership
  • 28 February 2024Aberdeen 0–2 St JohnstonePremiership

Leading scorers: Aberdeen and St Johnstone

Aberdeen

GoalsAssists

  • K. Nisbet43

St Johnstone

GoalsAssists

  • J. Fowler61

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

St Johnstone won 1–0 at Aberdeen. The model had leaned towards a win for Aberdeen at 42% and given a win for St Johnstone 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Josh Fowler (penalty) 14' for St Johnstone. On expected goals it finished 1.27–1.12.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Aberdeen a 25.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 18.0% after a win, 26.6% after a draw, 32.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 32.4%, 7.4 points higher than before the match.

For St Johnstone the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three: 20.0% after a win, 27.8% after a draw, 33.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure about where it was, at 20.0%.

Read from our Premiership season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Aberdeen v St Johnstone has moved

First published on 27 Sep at 39% / 29% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 42% / 28% / 30%: the biggest move is Aberdeen's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Aberdeen win42%▲ +3
  2. Draw28%▼ −1
  3. St Johnstone win30%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.