Aberdeen
vs
St Johnstone
Premiership prediction
Our model says: Aberdeen 1–0 St Johnstone
The model makes it 39% Aberdeen, 29% draw, 32% St Johnstone — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Aberdeen 1.46, St Johnstone 1.20.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Aberdeen vs St Johnstone
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Aberdeen at 39% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 2241 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Aberdeen vs St Johnstone
Aberdeen
- D1-1away to Hibernian19 September 2026
- W4-0away to Motherwell15 September 2026
- D0-0Kilmarnock5 September 2026
- L0-3away to Celtic2 September 2026
- L0-1Rangers30 August 2026
St Johnstone
- D1-1Falkirk19 September 2026
- L0-1Celtic9 September 2026
- W2-1Hibernian6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Dundee2 September 2026
- L1-2away to Heart of Midlothian29 August 2026
What these results say
- Aberdeen failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- St Johnstone conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- St Johnstone failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- St Johnstone scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Aberdeen | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 8 |
| 6 | St Johnstone | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Aberdeen vs St Johnstone
- 15 March 2025St Johnstone 0–0 AberdeenPremiership
- 7 December 2024Aberdeen 1–1 St JohnstonePremiership
- 5 August 2024St Johnstone 1–2 AberdeenPremiership
- 4 May 2024Aberdeen 1–0 St JohnstonePremiership
- 28 February 2024Aberdeen 0–2 St JohnstonePremiership
- 24 January 2024St Johnstone 1–1 AberdeenPremiership
Leading scorers: Aberdeen and St Johnstone
Aberdeen
- K. Nisbet3 goals2 assists
St Johnstone
- J. Fowler4 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Aberdeen carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.34 for St Johnstone. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.46 goals for Aberdeen and 1.20 for St Johnstone. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Aberdeen rate 0.53 in attack and 1.56 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; St Johnstone rate 0.59 and 1.65.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour St Johnstone, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Aberdeen a 0.4% chance of the title and St Johnstone 0.2%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Aberdeen the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Aberdeen against 1.2 for St Johnstone. Aberdeen's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.56 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.65 for St Johnstone.