Gornik Zabrze
vs
Monaco
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
The model makes it 34% Gornik Zabrze, 26% draw, 40% Monaco — fair odds of 2.94, 3.85 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Gornik Zabrze 1.40, Monaco 1.53.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Gornik Zabrze
- W3-1away to Radomiak Radom8 August 2026
- W2-1Slask Wroclaw25 July 2026
Monaco
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Domestic league positions
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Gornik Zabrze | Ekstraklasa | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 6 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Monaco has not started the league season yet. Full tables
Leading scorers
Gornik Zabrze
- Peter2 goals
Monaco
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Gornik Zabrze carry a model rating of 6.57 against 6.77 for Monaco. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Gornik Zabrze W-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.40 goals for Gornik Zabrze and 1.53 for Monaco. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Gornik Zabrze rate 0.74 in attack and 1.30 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Monaco rate 0.84 and 1.00.
That points to 56% for over two and a half goals and 60% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 336 correct results out of 706 settled predictions (48%), with 66 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Monaco the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.4 expected goals for Gornik Zabrze against 1.53 for Monaco. Gornik Zabrze's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/1 for Monaco.