Mladost Lucani
vs
Radnik Surdulica
Super Liga prediction
Our model says: Mladost Lucani 0–1 Radnik Surdulica
The model makes it 34% Mladost Lucani, 29% draw, 37% Radnik Surdulica — fair odds of 2.94, 3.45 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Mladost Lucani 1.23, Radnik Surdulica 1.28.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Mladost Lucani and Radnik Surdulica are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- Mladost Lucani are 7th on 17 points from 11 games; Radnik Surdulica are 6th on 17 points from 12 games — Super Liga.
- Mladost Lucani have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to OFK Beograd.
- Radnik Surdulica have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Radnicki NIS.
- Last 6 meetings: Mladost Lucani 2 wins to 0, 4 draws; the most recent, 19 July 2026, ended Radnik Surdulica 1–1 Mladost Lucani.
More Serbian SuperLiga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Mladost Lucani vs Radnik Surdulica
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Radnik Surdulica at 37% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 3,180 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Mladost Lucani vs Radnik Surdulica
Mladost Lucani
- D0-0OFK Beograd12 October 2026
- W2-1away to Macva20 September 2026
- L0-5away to Radnicki 192312 September 2026
- W1-0Radnicki NIS5 September 2026
- L0-2away to IMT Novi Beograd30 August 2026
Radnik Surdulica
- W3-0Radnicki NIS16 October 2026
- L0-1away to IMT Novi Beograd10 October 2026
- D4-4FK Partizan19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Zemun14 September 2026
- D0-0FK Crvena Zvezda10 September 2026
What these results say
- Radnik Surdulica failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Mladost Lucani | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 17 |
| 6 | Radnik Surdulica | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Mladost Lucani vs Radnik Surdulica
- 19 July 2026Radnik Surdulica 1–1 Mladost LucaniSuper Liga
- 8 December 2025Radnik Surdulica 0–0 Mladost LucaniSuper Liga
- 2 August 2025Mladost Lucani 1–0 Radnik SurdulicaSuper Liga
- 25 November 2023Radnik Surdulica 1–1 Mladost LucaniSuper Liga
- 31 July 2023Mladost Lucani 0–0 Radnik SurdulicaSuper Liga
- 9 May 2023Mladost Lucani 2–0 Radnik SurdulicaSuper Liga
Leading scorers: Mladost Lucani and Radnik Surdulica
Mladost Lucani
GoalsAssists
- Vasil Tasovski40
- João30
Radnik Surdulica
GoalsAssists
- V. Bogdanović60
- M. Novaković32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Mladost Lucani carry a model rating of 6.16 against 6.28 for Radnik Surdulica. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.23 goals for Mladost Lucani and 1.28 for Radnik Surdulica. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Mladost Lucani rate 0.43 in attack and 1.74 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Radnik Surdulica rate 0.57 and 1.78.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Radnik Surdulica the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Mladost Lucani against 1.28 for Radnik Surdulica. Mladost Lucani's attack/defence rating is 0.43/1.74 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.78 for Radnik Surdulica.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Mladost Lucani at home · Radnik Surdulica away
League matches only, Super Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super Liga matches this season: Mladost Lucani 11, Radnik Surdulica 12.
Mladost Lucani score most often in the 0–15 minute window (3 goals); Radnik Surdulica have let in 0 there.
Radnik Surdulica score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Mladost Lucani have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Mladost Lucani
- at Novi Pazar7 Nov · Super Ligawin 27%
- vs Železničar Pančevo21 Nov · Super Ligawin 26%
- at Cukaricki28 Nov · Super Ligawin 26%
Radnik Surdulica
- vs OFK Beograd7 Nov · Super Ligawin 46%
- at FK Crvena Zvezda21 Nov · Super Ligawin 10%
- vs Vojvodina28 Nov · Super Ligawin 26%
- at Macva6 Dec · Super Ligawin 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.