FK Crvena Zvezda
vs
Mladost Lucani
Super Liga prediction
Our model says: FK Crvena Zvezda 2–0 Mladost Lucani
The model makes it 65% FK Crvena Zvezda, 22% draw, 13% Mladost Lucani — fair odds of 1.54, 4.55 and 7.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (14%).
Expected goals: FK Crvena Zvezda 2.59, Mladost Lucani 0.60.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Key facts
- FK Crvena Zvezda are top on 28 points from 10 games; Mladost Lucani are 4th on 16 points from 10 games — Super Liga.
- FK Crvena Zvezda are unbeaten in their last 5 (4 won), most recently a 3-0 win at home to Radnicki NIS.
- Mladost Lucani have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 2-1 win away to Macva.
- Last 6 meetings: FK Crvena Zvezda 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 20 December 2025, ended FK Crvena Zvezda 4–0 Mladost Lucani.
All Serbian SuperLiga predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: FK Crvena Zvezda vs Mladost Lucani
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FK Crvena Zvezda at 65% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 277 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FK Crvena Zvezda vs Mladost Lucani
FK Crvena Zvezda
- W3-0Radnicki NIS20 September 2026
- W2-1away to Železničar Pančevo17 September 2026
- W1-0away to IMT Novi Beograd13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Radnik Surdulica10 September 2026
- W2-1FK Partizan6 September 2026
Mladost Lucani
- W2-1away to Macva20 September 2026
- L0-5away to Radnicki 192312 September 2026
- W1-0Radnicki NIS5 September 2026
- L0-2away to IMT Novi Beograd30 August 2026
- W3-1FK Partizan23 August 2026
What these results say
- FK Crvena Zvezda went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- FK Crvena Zvezda won 4 of these 5 matches.
- FK Crvena Zvezda scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Mladost Lucani conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 3 | +21 | 28 |
| 4 | Mladost Lucani | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FK Crvena Zvezda vs Mladost Lucani
- 20 December 2025FK Crvena Zvezda 4–0 Mladost LucaniSuper Liga
- 15 August 2025Mladost Lucani 1–4 FK Crvena ZvezdaSuper Liga
- 24 May 2025FK Crvena Zvezda 3–1 Mladost LucaniSuper Liga
- 30 November 2024Mladost Lucani 0–2 FK Crvena ZvezdaSuper Liga
- 27 July 2024FK Crvena Zvezda 2–2 Mladost LucaniSuper Liga
- 28 June 2024FK Crvena Zvezda 1–0 Mladost LucaniFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: FK Crvena Zvezda and Mladost Lucani
FK Crvena Zvezda
- V. Kostov4 goals1 assist
- M. Abu Fani2 goals2 assists
Mladost Lucani
- Vasil Tasovski4 goals
- João3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
FK Crvena Zvezda carry a model rating of 6.77 against 6.16 for Mladost Lucani. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.59 goals for FK Crvena Zvezda and 0.60 for Mladost Lucani. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FK Crvena Zvezda rate 0.89 in attack and 1.04 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Mladost Lucani rate 0.45 and 1.81.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FK Crvena Zvezda a 93.9% chance of the title and Mladost Lucani 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FK Crvena Zvezda the highest probability at 65%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.59 expected goals for FK Crvena Zvezda against 0.60 for Mladost Lucani. FK Crvena Zvezda's attack/defence rating is 0.89/1.04 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.45/1.81 for Mladost Lucani.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FK Crvena Zvezda at home · Mladost Lucani away
League matches only, Super Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super Liga matches this season: FK Crvena Zvezda 10, Mladost Lucani 10.
FK Crvena Zvezda score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Mladost Lucani have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
FK Crvena Zvezda
- vs FC Copenhagen22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 40%
- at OFK Beograd24 Oct · Super Ligawin 55%
- at Macva1 Nov · Super Ligawin 59%
Mladost Lucani
- vs Vojvodina24 Oct · Super Ligawin 26%
- vs Radnik Surdulica1 Nov · Super Ligawin 36%
- at Novi Pazar7 Nov · Super Ligawin 29%
- vs Železničar Pančevo21 Nov · Super Ligawin 30%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.