Železničar Pančevo
vs
FK Partizan
Super Liga prediction
Our model says: Železničar Pančevo 2–1 FK Partizan
The model makes it 42% Železničar Pančevo, 27% draw, 31% FK Partizan — fair odds of 2.38, 3.70 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Železničar Pančevo 1.93, FK Partizan 1.45.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Železničar Pančevo are 6th on 14 points from 9 games; FK Partizan are 11th on 8 points from 9 games — Super Liga.
- Železničar Pančevo have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Cukaricki.
- FK Partizan are without a win in 3, most recently a 4-4 draw away to Radnik Surdulica.
- Last 6 meetings: FK Partizan 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 18 April 2026, ended FK Partizan 2–1 Železničar Pančevo.
All Serbian SuperLiga predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Železničar Pančevo vs FK Partizan
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Železničar Pančevo at 42% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Železničar Pančevo vs FK Partizan
Železničar Pančevo
- W2-1Cukaricki20 September 2026
- L1-2FK Crvena Zvezda17 September 2026
- W2-0Macva11 September 2026
- L0-2away to Novi Pazar4 September 2026
- W5-1Radnik Surdulica29 August 2026
FK Partizan
- D4-4away to Radnik Surdulica19 September 2026
- L2-3Vojvodina13 September 2026
- L1-2away to FK Crvena Zvezda6 September 2026
- W3-1OFK Beograd31 August 2026
- L1-3away to Mladost Lucani23 August 2026
What these results say
- Železničar Pančevo scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Železničar Pančevo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FK Partizan scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- FK Partizan conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for FK Partizan had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Železničar Pančevo | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 14 |
| 11 | FK Partizan | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Železničar Pančevo vs FK Partizan
- 18 April 2026FK Partizan 2–1 Železničar PančevoSuper Liga
- 22 November 2025FK Partizan 1–3 Železničar PančevoSuper Liga
- 20 July 2025Železničar Pančevo 0–1 FK PartizanSuper Liga
- 8 December 2024Železničar Pančevo 0–1 FK PartizanSuper Liga
- 4 August 2024FK Partizan 2–0 Železničar PančevoSuper Liga
- 2 March 2024FK Partizan 3–1 Železničar PančevoSuper Liga
Leading scorers: Železničar Pančevo and FK Partizan
Železničar Pančevo
- K. Kwaku4 goals2 assists
FK Partizan
- E. Kojzek3 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Železničar Pančevo carry a model rating of 6.41 against 6.4 for FK Partizan. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.93 goals for Železničar Pančevo and 1.45 for FK Partizan. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Železničar Pančevo rate 0.60 in attack and 1.46 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FK Partizan rate 0.77 and 2.00.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Železničar Pančevo a 0.1% chance of the title and FK Partizan 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Železničar Pančevo the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Železničar Pančevo against 1.45 for FK Partizan. Železničar Pančevo's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.46 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/2 for FK Partizan.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Železničar Pančevo at home · FK Partizan away
League matches only, Super Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super Liga matches this season: Železničar Pančevo 9, FK Partizan 9.
Železničar Pančevo score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); FK Partizan have let in 3 there.
FK Partizan score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Železničar Pančevo have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Železničar Pančevo
- at IMT Novi Beograd24 Oct · Super Ligawin 31%
- at Radnicki NIS1 Nov · Super Ligawin 38%
- vs Radnicki 19237 Nov · Super Ligawin 39%
FK Partizan
- vs Cukaricki24 Oct · Super Ligawin 49%
- vs Zemun1 Nov · Super Ligawin 58%
- vs Macva7 Nov · Super Ligawin 55%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.