IMT Novi Beograd
vs
Cukaricki
Super Liga prediction
Our model says: IMT Novi Beograd 1–0 Cukaricki
The model makes it 48% IMT Novi Beograd, 28% draw, 24% Cukaricki — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: IMT Novi Beograd 1.50, Cukaricki 0.90.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to IMT Novi Beograd: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- IMT Novi Beograd are 3rd on 18 points from 11 games; Cukaricki are 8th on 15 points from 12 games — Super Liga.
- IMT Novi Beograd have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Radnik Surdulica.
- Cukaricki have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Zemun.
- Last 6 meetings: IMT Novi Beograd 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 19 July 2026, ended Cukaricki 0–1 IMT Novi Beograd.
More Serbian SuperLiga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: IMT Novi Beograd vs Cukaricki
Has the model earned this number?
It puts IMT Novi Beograd at 48% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into IMT Novi Beograd vs Cukaricki
IMT Novi Beograd
- W1-0Radnik Surdulica10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Vojvodina19 September 2026
- L0-1FK Crvena Zvezda13 September 2026
- D1-1away to OFK Beograd7 September 2026
- W2-0Mladost Lucani30 August 2026
Cukaricki
- W3-0Zemun17 October 2026
- D2-2Macva10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Železničar Pančevo20 September 2026
- D1-1Novi Pazar12 September 2026
- L1-3away to Radnik Surdulica5 September 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for IMT Novi Beograd had two goals or fewer.
- IMT Novi Beograd scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cukaricki scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cukaricki failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cukaricki conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | IMT Novi Beograd | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 18 |
| 8 | Cukaricki | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: IMT Novi Beograd vs Cukaricki
- 19 July 2026Cukaricki 0–1 IMT Novi BeogradSuper Liga
- 28 November 2025Cukaricki 1–1 IMT Novi BeogradSuper Liga
- 27 July 2025IMT Novi Beograd 1–3 CukarickiSuper Liga
- 12 May 2025Cukaricki 1–1 IMT Novi BeogradSuper Liga
- 7 April 2025Cukaricki 0–2 IMT Novi BeogradSuper Liga
- 9 November 2024IMT Novi Beograd 1–1 CukarickiSuper Liga
Leading scorers: IMT Novi Beograd and Cukaricki
IMT Novi Beograd
GoalsAssists
- C. Keita22
Cukaricki
GoalsAssists
- U. Miladinović53
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
IMT Novi Beograd carry a model rating of 6.41 against 6.24 for Cukaricki. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.50 goals for IMT Novi Beograd and 0.90 for Cukaricki. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
IMT Novi Beograd rate 0.49 in attack and 1.25 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cukaricki rate 0.56 and 1.91.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives IMT Novi Beograd a 0.1% chance of the title and Cukaricki 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives IMT Novi Beograd the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.50 expected goals for IMT Novi Beograd against 0.90 for Cukaricki. IMT Novi Beograd's attack/defence rating is 0.49/1.25 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.91 for Cukaricki.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
IMT Novi Beograd at home · Cukaricki away
League matches only, Super Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super Liga matches this season: IMT Novi Beograd 11, Cukaricki 12.
Cukaricki score most often in the 16–30 minute window (6 goals); IMT Novi Beograd have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
IMT Novi Beograd
- at Zemun7 Nov · Super Ligawin 53%
- vs FK Partizan21 Nov · Super Ligawin 41%
- vs Macva28 Nov · Super Ligawin 53%
Cukaricki
- vs Radnicki NIS7 Nov · Super Ligawin 49%
- at Radnicki 192321 Nov · Super Ligawin 26%
- vs Mladost Lucani28 Nov · Super Ligawin 46%
- at OFK Beograd6 Dec · Super Ligawin 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.