Macva
vs
FK Crvena Zvezda
Super Liga prediction
Our model says: Macva 0–2 FK Crvena Zvezda
The model makes it 12% Macva, 20% draw, 68% FK Crvena Zvezda — fair odds of 8.33, 5.00 and 1.47. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (14%).
Expected goals: Macva 0.67, FK Crvena Zvezda 2.32.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: FK Crvena Zvezda are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Key facts
- Macva are 12th on 10 points from 12 games; FK Crvena Zvezda are top on 31 points from 11 games — Super Liga.
- Macva have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to OFK Beograd.
- FK Crvena Zvezda are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 3-0 win away to Radnicki 1923.
- Last 6 meetings: FK Crvena Zvezda 6 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 17 July 2026, ended FK Crvena Zvezda 5–0 Macva.
More Serbian SuperLiga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Macva vs FK Crvena Zvezda
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FK Crvena Zvezda at 68% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 332 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.9%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into Macva vs FK Crvena Zvezda
Macva
- D1-1OFK Beograd17 October 2026
- D2-2away to Cukaricki10 October 2026
- L1-2Mladost Lucani20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Železničar Pančevo11 September 2026
- D0-0Radnicki 19235 September 2026
FK Crvena Zvezda
- W3-0away to Radnicki 192310 October 2026
- W3-0Radnicki NIS20 September 2026
- W2-1away to Železničar Pančevo17 September 2026
- W1-0away to IMT Novi Beograd13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Radnik Surdulica10 September 2026
What these results say
- Macva did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Macva conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FK Crvena Zvezda went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- FK Crvena Zvezda won 4 of these 5 matches.
- FK Crvena Zvezda scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Macva | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 10 |
| 1 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 27 | 3 | +24 | 31 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Macva vs FK Crvena Zvezda
- 17 July 2026FK Crvena Zvezda 5–0 MacvaSuper Liga
- 29 September 2022Macva 0–2 FK Crvena ZvezdaCup
- 11 March 2021FK Crvena Zvezda 4–0 MacvaSuper Liga
- 9 August 2020Macva 0–3 FK Crvena ZvezdaSuper Liga
- 7 March 2020Macva 0–3 FK Crvena ZvezdaSuper Liga
- 28 September 2019FK Crvena Zvezda 3–1 MacvaSuper Liga
Leading scorers: Macva and FK Crvena Zvezda
Macva
GoalsAssists
- M. Vidakov30
FK Crvena Zvezda
GoalsAssists
- V. Kostov42
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Macva carry a model rating of 6.09 against 6.81 for FK Crvena Zvezda. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.67 goals for Macva and 2.32 for FK Crvena Zvezda. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Macva rate 0.42 in attack and 1.95 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FK Crvena Zvezda rate 0.92 and 0.99.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Macva a 0% chance of the title and FK Crvena Zvezda 92.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FK Crvena Zvezda the highest probability at 68%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.67 expected goals for Macva against 2.32 for FK Crvena Zvezda. Macva's attack/defence rating is 0.42/1.95 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.92/0.99 for FK Crvena Zvezda.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Macva at home · FK Crvena Zvezda away
League matches only, Super Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super Liga matches this season: Macva 12, FK Crvena Zvezda 11.
FK Crvena Zvezda score most often in the 46–60 minute window (8 goals); Macva have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Macva
- at FK Partizan7 Nov · Super Ligawin 17%
- vs Vojvodina21 Nov · Super Ligawin 18%
- at IMT Novi Beograd28 Nov · Super Ligawin 18%
- vs Radnik Surdulica6 Dec · Super Ligawin 31%
FK Crvena Zvezda
- vs Inter Club d'Escaldes5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 73%
- at Vojvodina7 Nov · Super Ligawin 42%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.