FK Partizan
vs
Cukaricki
Super Liga prediction
Our model says: FK Partizan 2–1 Cukaricki
The model makes it 55% FK Partizan, 22% draw, 23% Cukaricki — fair odds of 1.82, 4.55 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: FK Partizan 2.35, Cukaricki 1.34.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to FK Partizan: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- FK Partizan are 10th on 11 points from 10 games; Cukaricki are 9th on 12 points from 11 games — Super Liga.
- FK Partizan have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Novi Pazar.
- Cukaricki have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Macva.
- Last 6 meetings: FK Partizan 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 17 May 2026, ended Cukaricki 0–0 FK Partizan.
More Serbian SuperLiga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FK Partizan vs Cukaricki
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FK Partizan at 55% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FK Partizan vs Cukaricki
FK Partizan
- W1-0Novi Pazar11 October 2026
- D4-4away to Radnik Surdulica19 September 2026
- L2-3Vojvodina13 September 2026
- L1-2away to FK Crvena Zvezda6 September 2026
- W3-1OFK Beograd31 August 2026
Cukaricki
- D2-2Macva10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Železničar Pančevo20 September 2026
- D1-1Novi Pazar12 September 2026
- L1-3away to Radnik Surdulica5 September 2026
- L0-5Vojvodina29 August 2026
What these results say
- FK Partizan scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- FK Partizan conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for FK Partizan had three goals or more.
- Cukaricki did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Cukaricki conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cukaricki scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | FK Partizan | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 11 |
| 9 | Cukaricki | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
FK Partizan
Chance to finish in the top four · 26% today
Cukaricki
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 22% today
From our Super Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: FK Partizan vs Cukaricki
- 17 May 2026Cukaricki 0–0 FK PartizanSuper Liga
- 5 April 2026FK Partizan 0–0 CukarickiSuper Liga
- 1 November 2025Cukaricki 4–1 FK PartizanSuper Liga
- 16 March 2025Cukaricki 0–1 FK PartizanSuper Liga
- 26 October 2024FK Partizan 3–1 CukarickiSuper Liga
- 17 May 2024Cukaricki 0–1 FK PartizanSuper Liga
Leading scorers: FK Partizan and Cukaricki
FK Partizan
GoalsAssists
- E. Kojzek32
Cukaricki
GoalsAssists
- U. Miladinović43
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
FK Partizan carry a model rating of 6.4 against 6.21 for Cukaricki. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.35 goals for FK Partizan and 1.34 for Cukaricki. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FK Partizan rate 0.75 in attack and 1.92 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cukaricki rate 0.54 and 1.96.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Cukaricki, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FK Partizan the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.35 expected goals for FK Partizan against 1.34 for Cukaricki. FK Partizan's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.92 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.96 for Cukaricki.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FK Partizan at home · Cukaricki away
League matches only, Super Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super Liga matches this season: FK Partizan 10, Cukaricki 11.
FK Partizan score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Cukaricki have let in 4 there.
Cukaricki score most often in the 16–30 minute window (6 goals); FK Partizan have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
FK Partizan
- vs Zemun1 Nov · Super Ligawin 69%
- vs Macva7 Nov · Super Ligawin 61%
- at IMT Novi Beograd21 Nov · Super Ligawin 31%
Cukaricki
- at IMT Novi Beograd1 Nov · Super Ligawin 23%
- vs Radnicki NIS7 Nov · Super Ligawin 44%
- at Radnicki 192321 Nov · Super Ligawin 24%
- vs Mladost Lucani28 Nov · Super Ligawin 44%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.