IMT Novi Beograd
vs
Železničar Pančevo
Super Liga prediction
Our model says: IMT Novi Beograd 1–0 Železničar Pančevo
The model makes it 36% IMT Novi Beograd, 31% draw, 33% Železničar Pančevo — fair odds of 2.78, 3.23 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: IMT Novi Beograd 1.10, Železničar Pančevo 1.02.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 35%, under 2.5: 65%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: IMT Novi Beograd and Železničar Pančevo are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- IMT Novi Beograd are 3rd on 18 points from 11 games; Železničar Pančevo are 4th on 17 points from 10 games — Super Liga.
- IMT Novi Beograd have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Radnik Surdulica.
- Železničar Pančevo have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win away to Zemun.
- Last 6 meetings: Železničar Pančevo 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 13 December 2025, ended Železničar Pančevo 1–0 IMT Novi Beograd.
More Serbian SuperLiga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: IMT Novi Beograd vs Železničar Pančevo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts IMT Novi Beograd at 36% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into IMT Novi Beograd vs Železničar Pančevo
IMT Novi Beograd
- W1-0Radnik Surdulica10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Vojvodina19 September 2026
- L0-1FK Crvena Zvezda13 September 2026
- D1-1away to OFK Beograd7 September 2026
- W2-0Mladost Lucani30 August 2026
Železničar Pančevo
- W3-0away to Zemun11 October 2026
- W2-1Cukaricki20 September 2026
- L1-2FK Crvena Zvezda17 September 2026
- W2-0Macva11 September 2026
- L0-2away to Novi Pazar4 September 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for IMT Novi Beograd had two goals or fewer.
- IMT Novi Beograd scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Železničar Pančevo scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | IMT Novi Beograd | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 18 |
| 4 | Železničar Pančevo | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
IMT Novi Beograd
Chance to finish in the top four · 45% today
Železničar Pančevo
Chance to finish in the top four · 60% today
From our Super Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: IMT Novi Beograd vs Železničar Pančevo
- 13 December 2025Železničar Pančevo 1–0 IMT Novi BeogradSuper Liga
- 11 August 2025IMT Novi Beograd 1–4 Železničar PančevoSuper Liga
- 4 May 2025IMT Novi Beograd 0–1 Železničar PančevoSuper Liga
- 21 December 2024IMT Novi Beograd 1–1 Železničar PančevoSuper Liga
- 18 August 2024Železničar Pančevo 2–1 IMT Novi BeogradSuper Liga
- 22 April 2024IMT Novi Beograd 0–0 Železničar PančevoSuper Liga
Leading scorers: IMT Novi Beograd and Železničar Pančevo
IMT Novi Beograd
GoalsAssists
- C. Keita22
- T. Cojic22
Železničar Pančevo
GoalsAssists
- K. Kwaku42
- S. Pedro24
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
IMT Novi Beograd carry a model rating of 6.41 against 6.45 for Železničar Pančevo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.10 goals for IMT Novi Beograd and 1.02 for Železničar Pančevo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
IMT Novi Beograd rate 0.49 in attack and 1.25 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Železničar Pančevo rate 0.63 and 1.40.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives IMT Novi Beograd a 0% chance of the title and Železničar Pančevo 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives IMT Novi Beograd the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.10 expected goals for IMT Novi Beograd against 1.02 for Železničar Pančevo. IMT Novi Beograd's attack/defence rating is 0.49/1.25 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.4 for Železničar Pančevo.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
IMT Novi Beograd at home · Železničar Pančevo away
League matches only, Super Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super Liga matches this season: IMT Novi Beograd 11, Železničar Pančevo 10.
Železničar Pančevo score most often in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals); IMT Novi Beograd have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
IMT Novi Beograd
- vs Cukaricki1 Nov · Super Ligawin 49%
- at Zemun7 Nov · Super Ligawin 50%
- vs FK Partizan21 Nov · Super Ligawin 41%
- vs Macva28 Nov · Super Ligawin 53%
Železničar Pančevo
- at Radnicki NIS1 Nov · Super Ligawin 45%
- vs Radnicki 19237 Nov · Super Ligawin 47%
- at Mladost Lucani21 Nov · Super Ligawin 45%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.