Strasbourg
vs
Auxerre
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Strasbourg 2–1 Auxerre
The model makes it 54% Strasbourg, 22% draw, 24% Auxerre — fair odds of 1.85, 4.55 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Strasbourg 2.32, Auxerre 1.38.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Strasbourg: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- Strasbourg are 12th on 7 points from 7 games; Auxerre are 16th on 6 points from 6 games — Ligue 1.
- Strasbourg are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Paris Saint Germain.
- Auxerre have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat away to Rennes.
- Last 6 meetings: Strasbourg 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 7 March 2026, ended Auxerre 0–0 Strasbourg.
More Ligue 1 (France) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Strasbourg vs Auxerre
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Strasbourg at 54% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Strasbourg vs Auxerre
Strasbourg
- L1-3Paris Saint Germain17 October 2026
- L1-2away to Nice11 October 2026
- L1-2away to Paris FC19 September 2026
- D1-1Monaco12 September 2026
- W6-2away to Estac Troyes6 September 2026
Auxerre
- L1-4away to Rennes11 October 2026
- W2-1Stade Brestois 2920 September 2026
- W1-0Nice12 September 2026
- L1-3away to Lyon4 September 2026
- L1-3Angers29 August 2026
What these results say
- Strasbourg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Strasbourg conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Strasbourg.
- Auxerre scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Auxerre conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Auxerre had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Strasbourg | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 7 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Auxerre vs Strasbourg
Auxerre and Strasbourg have met 6 times in the records we hold, Strasbourg has won 4 of them to Auxerre's 1, with 1 drawn.
The record
They drew 0–0 at Auxerre on 7 Mar 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auxerre | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 9 |
| Strasbourg | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 2 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 11 goals, an average of 1.83 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 7 Mar 2026
Ligue 1Auxerre 0–0 Strasbourg - 29 Oct 2025
Ligue 1Strasbourg 3–0 Auxerre - 2 Mar 2025
Ligue 1Auxerre 0–1 Strasbourg - 5 Jan 2025
Ligue 1Strasbourg 3–1 Auxerre - 19 Mar 2023
Ligue 1Strasbourg 2–0 Auxerre - 27 Aug 2022
Ligue 1Auxerre 1–0 Strasbourg
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Auxerre | 0.83 | 1.23 |
| Strasbourg | 1.12 | 1.21 |
Leading scorers: Strasbourg and Auxerre
Strasbourg
GoalsAssists
- Gessime Yassine22
Auxerre
GoalsAssists
- C. Archer40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Strasbourg carry a model rating of 6.82 against 6.65 for Auxerre. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.32 goals for Strasbourg and 1.38 for Auxerre. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Strasbourg rate 1.12 in attack and 1.21 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Auxerre rate 0.83 and 1.23.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Strasbourg a 0.2% chance of the title and Auxerre 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,111 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Strasbourg the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.32 expected goals for Strasbourg against 1.38 for Auxerre. Strasbourg's attack/defence rating is 1.12/1.21 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/1.23 for Auxerre.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Strasbourg at home · Auxerre away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
StrasbourgAuxerre
Strasbourg are 12th after 7 Ligue 1 matches (between 4th and 18th so far); Auxerre are 15th after 6 (between 9th and 18th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: Strasbourg 7, Auxerre 6.
Auxerre score most often in the 61–75 minute window (3 goals); Strasbourg have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Strasbourg
- at Toulouse6 Nov · Ligue 1win 31%
- vs Stade Brestois 2921 Nov · Ligue 1win 46%
- at Le Havre28 Nov · Ligue 1win 39%
- vs Lorient5 Dec · Ligue 1win 44%
Auxerre
- vs Paris FC7 Nov · Ligue 1win 23%
- at Monaco21 Nov · Ligue 1win 16%
- vs Marseille29 Nov · Ligue 1win 27%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.