ML Vitebsk
vs
Slavia Mozyr
Premier League prediction
Our model says: ML Vitebsk 2–0 Slavia Mozyr
The model makes it 70% ML Vitebsk, 19% draw, 11% Slavia Mozyr — fair odds of 1.43, 5.26 and 9.09.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: ML Vitebsk 2.60, Slavia Mozyr 0.77.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: ML Vitebsk are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. ML Vitebsk's rating is built from 58 Belarusian Premier League matches and Slavia Mozyr's from 58, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- ML Vitebsk are top on 62 points from 28 games; Slavia Mozyr are 10th on 34 points from 28 games — Premier League.
- ML Vitebsk have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 5-0 win away to Naftan.
- Slavia Mozyr have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Baranovichi.
- Last 5 meetings: ML Vitebsk 3 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 1 July 2026, ended Slavia Mozyr 2–4 ML Vitebsk.
More Belarusian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: ML Vitebsk vs Slavia Mozyr
Has the model earned this number?
ML Vitebsk at 70%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into ML Vitebsk vs Slavia Mozyr
ML Vitebsk
Premier League
- W5-0away to Naftan7 November 2026
- W4-0FC Minsk1 November 2026
- L0-1away to FC Isloch Minsk R.28 October 2026
- W2-0away to FC Vitebsk24 October 2026
- W1-0Neman18 October 2026
Slavia Mozyr
Premier League
- W2-0Baranovichi8 November 2026
- L1-3away to FC Isloch Minsk R.1 November 2026
- W4-2Torpedo Zhodino25 October 2026
- W4-2away to Belshina19 October 2026
- L1-3away to Dinamo Minsk15 October 2026
What these results say
- ML Vitebsk won 4 of these 5 matches.
- ML Vitebsk scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- ML Vitebsk kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Slavia Mozyr scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Slavia Mozyr conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Slavia Mozyr had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Belarus Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ML Vitebsk | 28 | 18 | 8 | 2 | 61 | 19 | +42 | 62 |
| 10 | Slavia Mozyr | 28 | 9 | 7 | 12 | 36 | 38 | -2 | 34 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
ML Vitebsk
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 68% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: ML Vitebsk vs Slavia Mozyr
- 1 July 2026Slavia Mozyr 2–4 ML VitebskPremier League
- 27 September 2025ML Vitebsk 2–3 Slavia MozyrPremier League
- 12 May 2025Slavia Mozyr 0–2 ML VitebskPremier League
- 27 July 2024Slavia Mozyr 0–2 ML VitebskCoppa
- 18 February 2024Slavia Mozyr 1–1 ML VitebskFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: ML Vitebsk and Slavia Mozyr
ML Vitebsk
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 61 league goals as a side.
Slavia Mozyr
GoalsAssists
- T. Lutsevich21
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives ML Vitebsk a 67.8% chance of the title and Slavia Mozyr 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives ML Vitebsk the highest probability at 70%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.60 expected goals for ML Vitebsk against 0.77 for Slavia Mozyr. ML Vitebsk's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.16 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/2.1 for Slavia Mozyr.
How the model reaches 70% for ML Vitebsk to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for ML Vitebsk to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, ML Vitebsk's ratings add 12 points and Slavia Mozyr's ratings add 14 points, which lands on the published 70%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- ML Vitebsk's ratings56%+12
- Slavia Mozyr's ratings70%+14
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
ML Vitebsk at home · Slavia Mozyr away
League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: ML Vitebsk 28, Slavia Mozyr 28.
ML Vitebsk score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); Slavia Mozyr have let in 9 there.
Slavia Mozyr score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); ML Vitebsk have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
Next match, by difficulty
ML Vitebsk
- at Belshina28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 66%
Slavia Mozyr
- vs Dinamo Brest28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 34%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.