HNK Hajduk Split
vs
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
HNL prediction
Our model says: HNK Hajduk Split 2–0 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
The model makes it 64% HNK Hajduk Split, 23% draw, 13% NK Lokomotiva Zagreb — fair odds of 1.56, 4.35 and 7.69.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (14%).
Expected goals: HNK Hajduk Split 2.03, NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0.64.
Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: HNK Hajduk Split are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. HNK Hajduk Split's rating is built from 49 Croatian HNL matches and NK Lokomotiva Zagreb's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 424 matches.
Key facts
- HNK Hajduk Split are top on 29 points from 13 games; NK Lokomotiva Zagreb are 9th on 11 points from 13 games — HNL.
- HNK Hajduk Split are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 1-0 win away to NK Osijek.
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Rudes.
- Last 6 meetings: HNK Hajduk Split 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 31 August 2026, ended HNK Hajduk Split 2–0 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb.
More Croatian HNL predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Has the model earned this number?
HNK Hajduk Split at 64%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
HNK Hajduk Split
HNL
- W1-0away to NK Osijek8 November 2026
- W5-0HNK Gorica31 October 2026
- D2-2away to Istra 196126 October 2026
- W1-0NK Varazdin18 October 2026
- W2-1Dinamo Zagreb10 October 2026
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
HNL
- L0-1Rudes6 November 2026
- L1-3NK Osijek1 November 2026
- D0-0away to HNK Gorica24 October 2026
- W2-0Istra 196117 October 2026
- L0-1NK Varazdin11 October 2026
What these results say
- HNK Hajduk Split went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- HNK Hajduk Split scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- HNK Hajduk Split won 4 of these 5 matches.
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HNK Hajduk Split | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 27 | 11 | +16 | 29 |
| 9 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
HNK Hajduk Split
Chance to win the league · 36% today
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Chance to finish in the bottom one · 21% today
From our HNL season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- 31 August 2026HNK Hajduk Split 2–0 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
- 16 May 2026NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1–1 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
- 15 March 2026HNK Hajduk Split 2–1 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
- 13 December 2025NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1–3 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
- 27 September 2025HNK Hajduk Split 2–0 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
- 13 April 2025HNK Hajduk Split 1–1 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
Leading scorers: HNK Hajduk Split and NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
HNK Hajduk Split
GoalsAssists
- M. Šego51
- A. Sanyang32
- Carlos Martín31
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
GoalsAssists
- D. Vuković32
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives HNK Hajduk Split a 35.9% chance of the title and NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives HNK Hajduk Split the highest probability at 64%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.03 expected goals for HNK Hajduk Split against 0.64 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb. HNK Hajduk Split's attack/defence rating is 0.83/1.12 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/1.57 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb.
How the model reaches 64% for HNK Hajduk Split to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for HNK Hajduk Split to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, HNK Hajduk Split's ratings add 13 points and NK Lokomotiva Zagreb's ratings add 10 points, which lands on the published 64%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage43%+7
- Both sides at this match's level41%−2
- HNK Hajduk Split's ratings54%+13
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb's ratings64%+10
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
HNK Hajduk Split at home · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb away
League matches only, HNL, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
HNK Hajduk SplitNK Lokomotiva Zagreb
HNK Hajduk Split are 1st after 13 HNL matches (between 1st and 8th so far); NK Lokomotiva Zagreb are 9th after 13 (between 2nd and 9th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All HNL matches this season: HNK Hajduk Split 13, NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 13.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); HNK Hajduk Split have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
HNK Hajduk Split
- vs St. Truiden26 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 41%
- vs Rudes28 Nov · HNLwin 67%
- at NK Slaven Belupo5 Dec · HNLwin 52%
- vs FC Nordsjaelland10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 45%
- vs HNK Rijeka12 Dec · HNLwin 56%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- vs NK Slaven Belupo28 Nov · HNLwin 42%
- at HNK Rijeka5 Dec · HNLwin 21%
- vs Dinamo Zagreb12 Dec · HNLwin 19%
- at NK Varazdin19 Dec · HNLwin 21%
- at Istra 196123 Jan · HNLwin 22%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.