Regular Season - 29 · 21 November 2026, 16:00 UTC

FC Gomel vs Bate Borisov Premier League prediction

Centralnyj Stadion, Gomel

Our model says: FC Gomel 1–0 Bate Borisov

The model makes it 55% FC Gomel, 27% draw, 18% Bate Borisov — fair odds of 1.82, 3.70 and 5.56.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).

Expected goals: FC Gomel 1.65, Bate Borisov 0.70.

Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.

Edge to FC Gomel: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. FC Gomel's rating is built from 58 Belarusian Premier League matches and Bate Borisov's from 58, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • FC Gomel are 6th on 43 points from 28 games; Bate Borisov are 14th on 24 points from 28 games — Premier League.
  • FC Gomel have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Arsenal Dzerzhinsk.
  • Bate Borisov have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Torpedo Zhodino.
  • Last 5 meetings: FC Gomel 3 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 2 July 2026, ended Bate Borisov 0–1 FC Gomel.

More Belarusian Premier League predictions

All Belarusian Premier League predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: FC Gomel vs Bate Borisov

41%
Both teams to score
42%
Over 2.5 goals
58%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

FC Gomel win Draw Bate Borisov win
  1. 1–015%
  2. 2–013%
  3. 1–112%
  4. 0–010%
  5. 2–19%
  6. 3–07%
  7. 0–16%

Scores read FC Gomel first; the other scorelines share the remaining 28%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

FC Gomel at 55%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into FC Gomel vs Bate Borisov

FC Gomel

Premier League

  • W2-0Arsenal Dzerzhinsk6 November 2026
  • L1-2away to FC Dnepr Mogilev31 October 2026
  • L1-2Dinamo Minsk24 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Dinamo Brest17 October 2026
  • L1-5ML Vitebsk11 October 2026

Bate Borisov

Premier League

  • W1-0Torpedo Zhodino7 November 2026
  • L0-1away to Arsenal Dzerzhinsk30 October 2026
  • L0-1Belshina24 October 2026
  • L1-2away to FC Dnepr Mogilev18 October 2026
  • L0-2Neman14 October 2026

What these results say

  • FC Gomel scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • FC Gomel failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • FC Gomel conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Bate Borisov failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Bate Borisov conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Bate Borisov had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Belarus Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6FC Gomel2812794029+1143
14Bate Borisov2859142034-1424

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Bate Borisov

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 58% today

Win 16%
Draw 54%
Defeat 71%

From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: FC Gomel vs Bate Borisov

  • 2 July 2026Bate Borisov 0–1 FC GomelPremier League
  • 22 August 2025FC Gomel 2–3 Bate BorisovPremier League
  • 12 April 2025Bate Borisov 0–0 FC GomelPremier League
  • 18 August 2024FC Gomel 2–0 Bate BorisovPremier League
  • 6 April 2024Bate Borisov 1–3 FC GomelPremier League

Leading scorers: FC Gomel and Bate Borisov

FC Gomel

GoalsAssists

  • V. Sotnikov22

Bate Borisov

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 20 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

How the call on FC Gomel v Bate Borisov has moved

First published on 7 Nov at 57% / 26% / 17% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 55% / 27% / 18%: the biggest move is FC Gomel's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. FC Gomel win55%▼ −2
  2. Draw27%▲ +1
  3. Bate Borisov win18%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

FC Gomel Bate Borisov
0.54 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.33
1.77 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.88
1.65 Model expected goals (this match) 0.70

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives FC Gomel the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.65 expected goals for FC Gomel against 0.70 for Bate Borisov. FC Gomel's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.77 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.33/1.88 for Bate Borisov.

How the model reaches 55% for FC Gomel to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for FC Gomel to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 3 points, FC Gomel's ratings add 9 points and Bate Borisov's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 55%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level41%−3
  4. FC Gomel's ratings50%+9
  5. Bate Borisov's ratings55%+5

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

FC GomelBate Borisov
28Matches28
12W 7D 9LRecord5W 9D 14L
40 1.4 per gameGoals scored20 0.7 per game
29 1.0 per gameGoals conceded34 1.2 per game
11 of 28Clean sheets7 of 28
5 of 28Failed to score15 of 28
2 of 2Penalties scored1 of 2
51 1.8 per gameYellow cards43 1.5 per game
3Red cards2
4-4-2 10×Usual shape4-2-3-1 10×

FC Gomel at home · Bate Borisov away

14Played14
7W 2D 5LRecord0W 6D 8L
24–16Goals for – against5–17
5 of 14Clean sheets3 of 14

League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Premier League matches this season: FC Gomel 28, Bate Borisov 28.

FC Gomel scored 6610488
Bate Borisov conceded 735747

FC Gomel score most often in the 31–45 minute window (10 goals); Bate Borisov have let in 5 there.

Bate Borisov scored 134517
FC Gomel conceded 762363

Bate Borisov score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); FC Gomel have let in 3 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

Next match, by difficulty

FC Gomel

  • at Neman28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 27%

Bate Borisov

  • vs FC Isloch Minsk R.28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 20%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.