Dinamo Brest
vs
Naftan
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Dinamo Brest 3–0 Naftan
The model makes it 83% Dinamo Brest, 11% draw, 6% Naftan — fair odds of 1.20, 9.09 and 16.67.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0 (9%).
Expected goals: Dinamo Brest 3.78, Naftan 0.83.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 84%, under 2.5: 16%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Dinamo Brest are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 10 November 2026. Dinamo Brest's rating is built from 58 Belarusian Premier League matches and Naftan's from 58, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Dinamo Brest are 4th on 51 points from 28 games; Naftan are bottom on 17 points from 28 games — Premier League.
- Dinamo Brest are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-2 draw away to FC Minsk.
- Naftan are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-5 defeat at home to ML Vitebsk.
- Last 6 meetings: Dinamo Brest 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 3 July 2026, ended Naftan 2–4 Dinamo Brest.
More Belarusian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Dinamo Brest vs Naftan
Has the model earned this number?
Dinamo Brest at 83%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Dinamo Brest vs Naftan
Dinamo Brest
Premier League
- D2-2away to FC Minsk8 November 2026
- W3-1FC Vitebsk31 October 2026
- W4-1away to Neman25 October 2026
- D2-2FC Gomel17 October 2026
- W1-0away to Arsenal Dzerzhinsk9 October 2026
Naftan
Premier League
- L0-5ML Vitebsk7 November 2026
- L0-3away to Baranovichi31 October 2026
- L0-6FC Isloch Minsk R.24 October 2026
- L0-1away to Torpedo Zhodino19 October 2026
- W4-1Belshina10 October 2026
What these results say
- Dinamo Brest went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Dinamo Brest scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dinamo Brest conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Naftan conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Naftan failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Naftan failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Belarus Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Dinamo Brest | 28 | 15 | 6 | 7 | 50 | 29 | +21 | 51 |
| 16 | Naftan | 28 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 24 | 70 | -46 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Dinamo Brest
Chance to finish in the top four · 90% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Dinamo Brest vs Naftan
- 3 July 2026Naftan 2–4 Dinamo BrestPremier League
- 10 August 2025Dinamo Brest 2–0 NaftanPremier League
- 30 March 2025Naftan 2–2 Dinamo BrestPremier League
- 13 February 2025Dinamo Brest 1–1 NaftanFriendlies Clubs
- 15 September 2024Naftan 3–6 Dinamo BrestPremier League
- 26 April 2024Dinamo Brest 2–2 NaftanPremier League
How the call on Dinamo Brest v Naftan has moved
First published on 7 Nov at 81% / 12% / 7% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 83% / 11% / 6%: the biggest move is Dinamo Brest's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Dinamo Brest win83%▲ +2
- Draw11%▼ −1
- Naftan win6%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dinamo Brest the highest probability at 83%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.78 expected goals for Dinamo Brest against 0.83 for Naftan. Dinamo Brest's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.72 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.4/3.42 for Naftan.
How the model reaches 83% for Dinamo Brest to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Dinamo Brest to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 3 points, Dinamo Brest's ratings add 18 points and Naftan's ratings add 18 points, which lands on the published 83%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level47%+3
- Dinamo Brest's ratings65%+18
- Naftan's ratings83%+18
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Dinamo Brest at home · Naftan away
League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Dinamo Brest 28, Naftan 28.
Dinamo Brest score most often in the 76–90 minute window (13 goals); Naftan have let in 11 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
Next match, by difficulty
Dinamo Brest
- at Slavia Mozyr28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 40%
Naftan
- vs Dinamo Minsk28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 12%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.