Degerfors IF
vs
Kalmar FF
Allsvenskan prediction
Our model says: Degerfors IF 1–0 Kalmar FF
The model makes it 38% Degerfors IF, 32% draw, 30% Kalmar FF — fair odds of 2.63, 3.13 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Degerfors IF 1.23, Kalmar FF 0.97.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%, under 2.5: 62%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Key facts
- Degerfors IF are 14th on 19 points from 22 games; Kalmar FF are 13th on 19 points from 22 games — Allsvenskan.
- Degerfors IF have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Hammarby FF.
- Kalmar FF have not won in their last 5, most recently a 0-5 defeat at home to BK Hacken.
- Last 6 meetings: Kalmar FF 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 23 May 2026, ended Kalmar FF 2–1 Degerfors IF.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Degerfors IF at 38% here. Across 3,039 settled matches (as of 5 October 2026), 2,396 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF
Degerfors IF
- L0-1Hammarby FF20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Sirius14 September 2026
- W2-0Halmstad5 September 2026
- L0-2away to IF Elfsborg29 August 2026
- L0-2away to IF Brommapojkarna23 August 2026
Kalmar FF
- L0-5BK Hacken20 September 2026
- L0-1away to IF Elfsborg13 September 2026
- L0-1Djurgardens IF7 September 2026
- L0-1away to Halmstad29 August 2026
- D0-0away to Vasteras SK FK23 August 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Degerfors IF had two goals or fewer.
- Degerfors IF failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Degerfors IF failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kalmar FF did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Kalmar FF failed to score in every one of these 5 matches.
- Kalmar FF conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Degerfors IF | 22 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 19 | 34 | -15 | 19 |
| 13 | Kalmar FF | 22 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 21 | 36 | -15 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF
- 23 May 2026Kalmar FF 2–1 Degerfors IFAllsvenskan
- 21 October 2023Degerfors IF 1–3 Kalmar FFAllsvenskan
- 10 June 2023Kalmar FF 2–1 Degerfors IFAllsvenskan
- 30 July 2022Degerfors IF 2–1 Kalmar FFAllsvenskan
- 17 April 2022Kalmar FF 2–0 Degerfors IFAllsvenskan
- 12 September 2021Kalmar FF 4–1 Degerfors IFAllsvenskan
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Degerfors IF carry a model rating of 6.23 against 6.19 for Kalmar FF. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.23 goals for Degerfors IF and 0.97 for Kalmar FF. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Degerfors IF rate 0.44 in attack and 1.56 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Kalmar FF rate 0.45 and 1.72.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Kalmar FF, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,433 correct results out of 3,044 settled predictions (47%), with 301 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Degerfors IF the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Degerfors IF against 0.97 for Kalmar FF. Degerfors IF's attack/defence rating is 0.44/1.56 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.45/1.72 for Kalmar FF.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Degerfors IF at home · Kalmar FF away
League matches only, Allsvenskan, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Allsvenskan matches this season: Degerfors IF 22, Kalmar FF 22.
Degerfors IF score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Kalmar FF have let in 7 there.
Kalmar FF score most often in the 0–15 minute window (6 goals); Degerfors IF have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Degerfors IF
- at BK Hacken24 Oct · Allsvenskanwin 23%
- vs Vasteras SK FK28 Oct · Allsvenskanwin 30%
- at Djurgardens IF1 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 16%
- vs Gais7 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 26%
Kalmar FF
- vs IF Brommapojkarna24 Oct · Allsvenskanwin 33%
- vs Gais29 Oct · Allsvenskanwin 25%
- at Mjallby AIF2 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 27%
- vs Sirius8 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 25%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.