Mirassol vs Vitoria Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Mirassol 2-2 Vitoria.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Mirassol, 30% draw, 29% Vitoria — fair odds of 2.44, 3.33 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Mirassol at 41% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Mirassol vs Vitoria
Line-ups
- 23Alex MuralhaG
- 32Igor FormigaD
- 44GabrielD
- 3Willian MachadoD
- 6ReinaldoD
- 80WallissonM
- 19Gustavo SilvaM
- 10ChicoM
- 33EduardoM
- 77AlessonM
- 30Bruno SantosF
- 96Carlos EduardoF
- 7ShaylonM
- 20Daniel BorgesD
- 2Lucas OliveiraD
- 5JapaM
- 90ThomazellaG
- 12Victor LuísD
- 18EliasD
- 17FernandinhoF
- 1Lucas ArcanjoG
- 98MateusinhoD
- 2E. BrítezD
- 25CacáD
- 36Luan CândidoD
- 83JamersonD
- 33ErickM
- 95CaíqueM
- 88Zé VitorM
- 12D. TarziaM
- 91ReneF
- 69Wanderson Estrela OliveiraD
- 79Renato KayzerF
- 10MatheuzinhoM
- 8T. PochettinoM
- 20Lucas SilvaF
- 7MarinhoF
- 26EdenilsonM
- 71Yuri SenaG
- 3Darlan Silva DutraD
Form going into Mirassol vs Vitoria
Mirassol
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to Coritiba6 September 2026
- L0-2away to Flamengo2 September 2026
- D1-1Palmeiras30 August 2026
- D1-1away to Santos23 August 2026
- L1-5Flamengo16 August 2026
Vitoria
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Gremio7 September 2026
- L1-2away to Atletico Mineiro29 August 2026
- L0-2Bahia23 August 2026
- W1-0Botafogo16 August 2026
- L0-2away to Flamengo9 August 2026
What these results say
- Mirassol conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Mirassol failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Mirassol scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Vitoria had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Mirassol | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 37 | 45 | -8 | 37 |
| 14 | Vitoria | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 35 | 46 | -11 | 38 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Mirassol vs Vitoria
- 22 March 2026Vitoria 1–0 MirassolSerie A
- 29 November 2025Vitoria 2–0 MirassolSerie A
- 26 July 2025Mirassol 1–1 VitoriaSerie A
- 1 September 2023Vitoria 0–0 MirassolSerie B
- 19 May 2023Mirassol 2–0 VitoriaSerie B
Leading scorers: Mirassol and Vitoria
Mirassol
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 37 league goals as a side.
Vitoria
GoalsAssists
- Rene101
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Mirassol and Vitoria drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Mirassol at 41% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Carlos Renê de Sousa Ferreira 3' for Vitoria, Carlos Renê de Sousa Ferreira 12' for Vitoria, Bruno Santos de Oliveira 68' for Mirassol, Edson Carioca 90' for Mirassol.
How the call on Mirassol v Vitoria has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 43% / 29% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 41% / 30% / 29%: the biggest move is Mirassol's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Mirassol win41%▼ −2
- Draw30%▲ +1
- Vitoria win29%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.