Regular Season - 4 · 13 September 2026, 16:00 UTC

Napoli vs Bologna Serie A prediction & result

Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Naples
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Napoli 1-0 Bologna.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Napoli, 30% draw, 26% Bologna — fair odds of 2.27, 3.33 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Napoli 1.51, Bologna 0.93.

Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

Model insights: Napoli vs Bologna

48%
Both teams to score
44%
Over 2.5 goals
56%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 13%1-0 13%2-0 10%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Napoli at 44% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Napoli97%Draw3%Bologna0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

7'
•A. Theate
31'
M. Amondarain
🔁A. Vergaraout: N. Lang
46'
🔁M. Politanoout: C. Favasuli
46'
58'
🔁T. Pobegaout: M. Libra
58'
🔁R. Piccoliout: J. Odgaard
66'
🔁M. Amondarainout: N. Moro
⚽S. Lobotkaassist: C. Favasuli
66'
🔁R. Hojlundout: L. Lucca
75'
82'
🔁N. Cambiaghiout: S. Mbangula
82'
🔁F. Bernardeschiout: J. Enem
🔁K. De Bruyneout: M. Olivera
88'

Match stats — Napoli vs Bologna

58%Possession42%
15Shots5
3On target2
10Corners0
1.81xG0.25

Goals against chances

Napoli1 from 1.81 xGless than the chances were worth
Bologna0 from 0.25 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Napoli 4-2-3-1
  • 32Vanja Milinković-SavićG
  • 22Giovanni Di LorenzoD
  • 13Amir RrahmaniD
  • 16Rafa MarínD
  • 37Leonardo SpinazzolaD
  • 6Billy GilmourM
  • 68Stanislav LobotkaM
  • 21Matteo PolitanoM
  • 11Kevin De BruyneM
  • 26Antonio VergaraM
  • 19Rasmus HøjlundF
Substitutes
  • 2Costantino FavasuliD
  • 70Noa LangF
  • 20Lorenzo LuccaF
  • 17Mathías OliveraD
  • 12Claudio PuglieseG
  • 14Nikita ContiniG
  • 31Sam BeukemaD
  • 5Benoît BadiashileD
  • 7David NeresF
Coach: Massimiliano Allegri
Bologna 4-2-3-1
  • 25Massimo PessinaG
  • 2Emil HolmD
  • 14Torbjørn HeggemD
  • 3Arthur TheateD
  • 33Juan MirandaD
  • 19Lewis FergusonM
  • 4Tommaso PobegaM
  • 10Federico BernardeschiM
  • 8Mikel AmondarainM
  • 28Nicolò CambiaghiM
  • 91Roberto PiccoliF
Substitutes
  • 21Jens OdgaardF
  • 18Marco LibraD
  • 6Nikola MoroM
  • 11Samuel MbangulaF
  • 22Jay EnemF
  • 1Łukasz SkorupskiG
  • 82Matteo FranceschelliG
  • 29Lorenzo De SilvestriD
  • 5Eivind HellandD
Coach: Domenico Tedesco

Form going into Napoli vs Bologna

Napoli

  • L2-3away to Inter5 September 2026
  • L1-2Como30 August 2026
  • W2-0away to Genoa22 August 2026

Bologna

  • D2-2Sassuolo6 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Atalanta31 August 2026
  • L0-1Lazio24 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Napoli420265+16
16Bologna401325-31

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Napoli vs Bologna

  • 13 September 2026Napoli 1–0 BolognaSerie A
  • 11 May 2026Napoli 2–3 BolognaSerie A
  • 22 December 2025Napoli 2–0 BolognaSuper Cup
  • 9 November 2025Bologna 2–0 NapoliSerie A
  • 7 April 2025Bologna 1–1 NapoliSerie A
  • 25 August 2024Napoli 3–0 BolognaSerie A

Leading scorers: Napoli and Bologna

Napoli

  • R. Højlund2 goals

Bologna

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.51 goals for Napoli and 0.93 for Bologna; the game produced 1 and 0.

Goals

Scorers, in order: S. Lobotka 66' (Napoli).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Napoli the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Napoli against 0.93 for Bologna. Napoli's attack/defence rating is 1.09/0.75 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.03/0.85 for Bologna.