13 September 2026, 21:30 UTC

Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution Major League Soccer prediction & result

Soldier Field, Chicago
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Chicago Fire 1-2 New England Revolution.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Chicago Fire, 27% draw, 33% New England Revolution — fair odds of 2.50, 3.70 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Chicago Fire at 40% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Chicago Fire0%Draw5%New England Revolution95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

39'
⚽D. Turgemanassist: J. Yueill
Noah Allen
43'
🔁S. Rogersout: A. Gutman
46'
47'
⚽P. Millerassist: D. Turgeman
52'
Matt Polster
🔁J. Gomezout: R. Lod
55'
🔁J. Deanout: M. Haile-Selassie
55'
🔁P. Dithejaneout: J. Bamba
55'
58'
Peyton Miller
⚽M. Haile-Selassieassist: R. Lod
62'
69'
🔁J. Yueillout: J. Wynder
69'
🔁D. Gazdagout: G. Yow
81'
🔁D. Turgemanout: I. Feingold
Sergio Oregel
84'
88'
🔁P. Millerout: C. Baker
88'
🔁C. Gilout: W. Harris

Match stats — Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution

61%Possession39%
22Shots4
7On target2
13Corners0
1.92xG1.53

Goals against chances

Chicago Fire1 from 1.92 xGless than the chances were worth
New England Revolution2 from 1.53 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Chicago Fire 4-2-3-1
  • 1C. BradyG
  • 24J. DeanD
  • 5S. RogersD
  • 3J. ElliottD
  • 32N. AllenD
  • 35S. OregelM
  • 42D. D'AvillaM
  • 11P. ZinckernagelM
  • 18J. GomezM
  • 12P. DithejaneM
  • 9R. LewandowskiF
Substitutes
  • 44J. CohenG
  • 22M. PinedaD
  • 2L. BarrosoD
  • 15A. GutmanD
  • 17R. LodM
  • 7M. Haile-SelassieM
  • 29D. PorebaM
  • 37R. TurdeanM
  • 19J. BambaF
Coach: Mario Barcena
New England Revolution 4-3-3
  • 30M. TurnerG
  • 8M. PolsterD
  • 22E. KohlerD
  • 2M. FofanaD
  • 23W. SandsD
  • 10C. GilM
  • 21B. RainesM
  • 14J. YueillM
  • 25P. MillerF
  • 99D. TurgemanF
  • 16D. GazdagF
Substitutes
  • 73J. GunnG
  • 66J. WynderD
  • 15C. BakerD
  • 12I. FeingoldD
  • 65J. SiqueiraF
  • 77D. FagundezM
  • 7G. YowF
  • 41L. LangoniF
  • 27W. HarrisF
Coach: Marko Mitrovic

Form going into Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution

Chicago Fire

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1Inter Miami10 September 2026
  • D4-4away to Toronto FC5 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Seattle Sounders29 August 2026
  • D1-1away to New York Red Bulls22 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Orlando City SC19 August 2026

New England Revolution

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1away to New York City FC10 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Los Angeles Galaxy6 September 2026
  • W3-1away to Columbus Crew30 August 2026
  • D1-1New York City FC23 August 2026
  • W3-0away to DC United19 August 2026

What these results say

  • Chicago Fire went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Chicago Fire scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Chicago Fire conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • New England Revolution scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • New England Revolution conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for New England Revolution had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Chicago Fire32157105748+952
2New England Revolution32184105444+1058

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution

  • 18 October 2025New England Revolution 2–2 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
  • 7 September 2025Chicago Fire 3–2 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
  • 20 May 2025New England Revolution 1–3 Chicago FireUS Open Cup
  • 5 May 2024Chicago Fire 0–1 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
  • 23 March 2024New England Revolution 1–1 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
  • 24 September 2023Chicago Fire 2–2 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer

The result against the call

New England Revolution won 2–1 at Chicago Fire. The model had leaned towards a win for Chicago Fire at 40% and given a win for New England Revolution 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: D. Turgeman 39' for New England Revolution, P. Miller 47' for New England Revolution, M. Haile-Selassie 62' for Chicago Fire. On expected goals it finished 1.92–1.53.

How the call on Chicago Fire v New England Revolution has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 37% / 30% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 40% / 27% / 33%: the biggest move is Chicago Fire's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Chicago Fire win40%▲ +3
  2. Draw27%▼ −3
  3. New England Revolution win33%=

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.