Chicago Fire
vs
New England Revolution
Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Chicago Fire 1-2 New England Revolution.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Chicago Fire, 27% draw, 32% New England Revolution — fair odds of 2.44, 3.70 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Chicago Fire 1.90, New England Revolution 1.55.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Chicago Fire at 41% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution
Chicago Fire
- D1-1Inter Miami10 September 2026
- D4-4away to Toronto FC5 September 2026
- D2-2away to Seattle Sounders29 August 2026
- D1-1away to New York Red Bulls22 August 2026
- W2-1away to Orlando City SC19 August 2026
New England Revolution
- W2-1away to New York City FC10 September 2026
- L1-2away to Los Angeles Galaxy6 September 2026
- W3-1away to Columbus Crew30 August 2026
- D1-1New York City FC23 August 2026
- W3-0away to DC United19 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution
- 18 October 2025New England Revolution 2–2 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- 7 September 2025Chicago Fire 3–2 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
- 20 May 2025New England Revolution 1–3 Chicago FireUS Open Cup
- 5 May 2024Chicago Fire 0–1 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
- 23 March 2024New England Revolution 1–1 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- 24 September 2023Chicago Fire 2–2 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Chicago Fire and New England Revolution
Chicago Fire
- H. Cuypers13 goals
New England Revolution
No leading scorers listed yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Chicago Fire carry a model rating of 6.55 against 6.61 for New England Revolution. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.90 goals for Chicago Fire and 1.55 for New England Revolution. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Chicago Fire rate 0.76 in attack and 1.38 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; New England Revolution rate 0.93 and 1.54.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Chicago Fire the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.9 expected goals for Chicago Fire against 1.55 for New England Revolution. Chicago Fire's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.38 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.93/1.54 for New England Revolution.