Flamengo
vs
Corinthians
Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Flamengo 2-1 Corinthians.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Flamengo, 29% draw, 25% Corinthians — fair odds of 2.17, 3.45 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Flamengo 1.69, Corinthians 0.95.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Flamengo vs Corinthians
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Flamengo at 46% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Flamengo vs Corinthians
Flamengo
- W1-0away to Remo6 September 2026
- W2-0Mirassol2 September 2026
- W3-0Botafogo30 August 2026
- L1-2away to Cruzeiro22 August 2026
Corinthians
- L1-2Chapecoense6 September 2026
- L0-1Santos30 August 2026
- L1-2away to Coritiba23 August 2026
- L1-2Cruzeiro16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 27 | 17 | 6 | 4 | 53 | 22 | +31 | 57 |
| 13 | Corinthians | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 28 | 29 | -1 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Flamengo vs Corinthians
- 22 March 2026Corinthians 1–1 FlamengoSerie A
- 1 February 2026Flamengo 0–2 CorinthiansSupercopa do Brasil
- 28 September 2025Corinthians 1–2 FlamengoSerie A
- 27 April 2025Flamengo 4–0 CorinthiansSerie A
- 20 October 2024Corinthians 0–0 FlamengoCopa Do Brasil
- 3 October 2024Flamengo 1–0 CorinthiansCopa Do Brasil
Leading scorers: Flamengo and Corinthians
Flamengo
- Pedro15 goals5 assists
- Samuel Lino9 goals7 assists
Corinthians
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 28 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Flamengo carry a model rating of 6.83 against 6.7 for Corinthians. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.69 goals for Flamengo and 0.95 for Corinthians. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Flamengo rate 0.96 in attack and 0.99 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Corinthians rate 0.80 and 1.08.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Flamengo a 56.7% chance of the title and Corinthians 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Flamengo the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Flamengo against 0.95 for Corinthians. Flamengo's attack/defence rating is 0.96/0.99 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/1.08 for Corinthians.