Flamengo vs Corinthians Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Flamengo 2-1 Corinthians.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Flamengo, 29% draw, 25% Corinthians — fair odds of 2.17, 3.45 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Flamengo at 46% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Flamengo vs Corinthians
Line-ups
- 1A. RossiG
- 2G. VarelaD
- 3Léo OrtizD
- 13DaniloD
- 6Ayrton LucasD
- 5E. PulgarM
- 11Lucas PaquetáM
- 19G. PlataM
- 10G. de ArrascaetaM
- 16Samuel LinoM
- 9PedroF
- 15J. CarrascalM
- 49DyogoG
- 30J. FreitasF
- 21JorginhoM
- 22Emerson RoyalD
- 26Alex SandroD
- 27Bruno HenriqueF
- 14A. ValenciaF
- 44VitãoD
- 1Hugo SouzaG
- 20P. MilansD
- 4João PedroD
- 55I. MachadoD
- 26F. AngileriD
- 61DieguinhoM
- 35CharlesM
- 14RanieleM
- 77J. LingardM
- 23Matheus PereiraF
- 56Guilherme InácioF
- 80Alex SantanaM
- 7BrenoM
- 11VitinhoF
- 18Pedro RaulF
- 2MatheuzinhoD
- 21Matheus BiduD
- 51Kauê CamargoG
- 37Kaio CésarF
- 46HugoD
Form going into Flamengo vs Corinthians
Flamengo
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to Remo6 September 2026
- W2-0Mirassol2 September 2026
- W3-0Botafogo30 August 2026
- L1-2away to Cruzeiro22 August 2026
- W5-1away to Mirassol16 August 2026
Corinthians
All competitions we cover
- L1-2Chapecoense6 September 2026
- L0-1Santos30 August 2026
- L1-2away to Coritiba23 August 2026
- L1-2Cruzeiro16 August 2026
- W2-0away to RB Bragantino9 August 2026
What these results say
- Flamengo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Flamengo won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Corinthians failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Corinthians scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Corinthians conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 33 | 22 | 7 | 4 | 68 | 28 | +40 | 73 |
| 18 | Corinthians | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 34 | 42 | -8 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Flamengo vs Corinthians
- 22 March 2026Corinthians 1–1 FlamengoSerie A
- 1 February 2026Flamengo 0–2 CorinthiansSupercopa do Brasil
- 28 September 2025Corinthians 1–2 FlamengoSerie A
- 27 April 2025Flamengo 4–0 CorinthiansSerie A
- 20 October 2024Corinthians 0–0 FlamengoCopa Do Brasil
Leading scorers: Flamengo and Corinthians
Flamengo
GoalsAssists
- Pedro186
- Samuel Lino119
Corinthians
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 34 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Flamengo beat Corinthians 2–1. The model had made a win for Flamengo its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Lucas Paquetá 48' for Flamengo, Gui Negão 78' for Corinthians, Bruno Henrique 89' for Flamengo.
How the call on Flamengo v Corinthians has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 42% / 30% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 46% / 29% / 25%: the biggest move is Flamengo's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Flamengo win46%▲ +4
- Draw29%▼ −1
- Corinthians win25%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.