Argentinos Juniors vs Gimnasia La Plata Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Argentinos Juniors 1-1 Gimnasia La Plata.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Argentinos Juniors, 30% draw, 28% Gimnasia La Plata — fair odds of 2.38, 3.33 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Liga Profesional Argentina predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Argentinos Juniors at 42% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Argentinos Juniors vs Gimnasia La Plata
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 25B. CortesG
- 22K. CoronelD
- 16F. AlvarezD
- 6F. VazquezD
- 20S. PrietoD
- 10G. FlorentinM
- 15K. GutierrezM
- 11N. OrozM
- 8H. LopezM
- 27T. MolinaF
- 9G. VeronF
- 12G. Siri PayerG
- 26C. BravoD
- 17F. ParedesD
- 4E. GodoyD
- 30A. NunezD
- 5F. CarrizoD
- 32G. InfantinoM
- 35A. AlcarazF
- 19M. GimenezF
- 23N. InsfranG
- 31B. Barros SchelottoD
- 13German ContiD
- 21E. MartinezD
- 24P. Silva TorrejonD
- 5I. MiramonM
- 18M. SeoaneM
- 9M. ZalazarM
- 8N. FernandezM
- 17L. JansonM
- 29A. AuzmendiF
- 27J. KadijevicG
- 22M. MellusoD
- 4R. GiampaoliD
- 16A. MaxM
- 10N. SchelottoM
- 20J. PerezM
- 25A. SteimbachM
- 33P. AguiarM
- 32M. TorresF
Form going into Argentinos Juniors vs Gimnasia La Plata
Argentinos Juniors
All competitions we cover
- D0-0away to Barracas Central7 September 2026
- W2-1Aldosivi30 August 2026
- D1-1away to Lanus25 August 2026
- L0-2away to River Plate16 August 2026
- W2-1Racing Club9 August 2026
Gimnasia La Plata
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Tigre5 September 2026
- W2-1away to Rosario Central29 August 2026
- L2-3Gimnasia Mendoza22 August 2026
- L0-4away to Estudiantes La Plata15 August 2026
- W2-0Barracas Central9 August 2026
What these results say
- Argentinos Juniors conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gimnasia La Plata scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gimnasia La Plata conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Gimnasia La Plata had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Argentinos Juniors | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 18 | 11 | +7 | 28 |
| 3 | Gimnasia La Plata | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 21 | 18 | +3 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Argentinos Juniors vs Gimnasia La Plata
- 3 May 2026Gimnasia La Plata 2–0 Argentinos JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
- 2 September 2024Gimnasia La Plata 1–0 Argentinos JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
- 6 March 2024Argentinos Juniors 2–0 Gimnasia La PlataCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 19 October 2023Gimnasia La Plata 3–2 Argentinos JuniorsCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 25 April 2023Argentinos Juniors 2–4 Gimnasia La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Argentinos Juniors and Gimnasia La Plata
Argentinos Juniors
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.
Gimnasia La Plata
GoalsAssists
- M. Torres92
- A. Auzmendi73
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Argentinos Juniors and Gimnasia La Plata drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Argentinos Juniors at 42% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: A. Auzmendi 26' for Gimnasia La Plata, G. Veron 74' for Argentinos Juniors. Sent off: Sebastián Prieto (Argentinos Juniors) 41'. On expected goals it finished 0.68–1.55.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.