Lecce
vs
Monza
Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Lecce 3-2 Monza.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Lecce, 29% draw, 35% Monza — fair odds of 2.78, 3.45 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Lecce 1.36, Monza 1.35.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: Lecce vs Monza
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lecce at 36% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lecce vs Monza
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 30Wladimiro FalconeG
- 17Danilo VeigaD
- 5Jamil SiebertD
- 44Tiago GabrielD
- 25Antonino GalloD
- 29Lassana CoulibalyM
- 20Ivan IlićM
- 14Youssef MalehM
- 11N'Dri KonanF
- 9Nikola ŠtulićF
- 99Joël MonteiroF
- 50Santiago PierottiF
- 79Oumar NgomM
- 7Amar FatahF
- 22Paco EstebanF
- 77Mohamed KabaM
- 32Alexandru BorbeiG
- 1Marco BleveG
- 4Kialonda GasparD
- 3Corrie NdabaD
- 20Demba ThiamG
- 60Eddy KouadioD
- 3Lorenzo LucchesiD
- 44Andrea CarboniD
- 19Samuele BirindelliM
- 90Michael FolorunshoM
- 14Ebenezer AkinsanmiroM
- 7Ricardo MangasM
- 28Andrea ColpaniF
- 46Jay RobinsonF
- 9Gustavo VarelaF
- 24Adam BakouneD
- 22Exequiel ZeballosF
- 10Patrick CutroneF
- 11Omari ForsonF
- 80Mathis MoutM
- 1Noel TörnqvistG
- 43Aljaz StrajnarG
- 5Yvan MayeD
- 2Saba GoglichidzeD
Form going into Lecce vs Monza
Lecce
- L0-1away to Cagliari7 September 2026
- L0-4AS Roma31 August 2026
- W2-0away to Venezia23 August 2026
Monza
- D1-1away to Parma6 September 2026
- L2-3Udinese29 August 2026
- L1-4away to Inter22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Lecce | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 6 |
| 18 | Monza | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lecce vs Monza
- 13 September 2026Lecce 3–2 MonzaSerie A
- 16 February 2025Monza 0–0 LecceSerie A
- 15 December 2024Lecce 2–1 MonzaSerie A
- 27 April 2024Lecce 1–1 MonzaSerie A
- 17 September 2023Monza 1–1 LecceSerie A
- 28 May 2023Monza 0–1 LecceSerie A
Leading scorers: Lecce and Monza
Lecce
- L. Coulibaly2 goals1 assists
- Tiago Gabriel2 goals
Monza
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.36 goals for Lecce and 1.35 for Monza; the game produced 3 and 2.
A gap that size between expected and actual goals is normal in a single match — it is the reason we publish probabilities rather than predictions, and why the record below is measured over hundreds of games rather than one.
Goals
Scorers, in order: L. Coulibaly 3' (Lecce), Tiago Gabriel 10' (Lecce), R. Mangas 20' (Monza), L. Coulibaly 21' (Lecce), E. Zeballos 89' (Monza).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lecce the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Lecce against 1.35 for Monza. Lecce's attack/defence rating is 0.9/1.05 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.07/0.93 for Monza.