Lecce vs Monza Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Lecce 3-2 Monza.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Lecce, 30% draw, 34% Monza — fair odds of 2.78, 3.33 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lecce at 36% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lecce vs Monza
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 30Wladimiro FalconeG
- 17Danilo VeigaD
- 5Jamil SiebertD
- 44Tiago GabrielD
- 25Antonino GalloD
- 29Lassana CoulibalyM
- 20Ivan IlićM
- 14Youssef MalehM
- 11N'Dri KonanF
- 9Nikola ŠtulićF
- 99Joël MonteiroF
- 50Santiago PierottiF
- 79Oumar NgomM
- 7Amar FatahF
- 22Paco EstebanF
- 77Mohamed KabaM
- 32Alexandru BorbeiG
- 1Marco BleveG
- 4Kialonda GasparD
- 3Corrie NdabaD
- 20Demba ThiamG
- 60Eddy KouadioD
- 3Lorenzo LucchesiD
- 44Andrea CarboniD
- 19Samuele BirindelliM
- 90Michael FolorunshoM
- 14Ebenezer AkinsanmiroM
- 7Ricardo MangasM
- 28Andrea ColpaniF
- 46Jay RobinsonF
- 9Gustavo VarelaF
- 24Adam BakouneD
- 22Exequiel ZeballosF
- 10Patrick CutroneF
- 11Omari ForsonF
- 80Mathis MoutM
- 1Noel TörnqvistG
- 43Aljaz StrajnarG
- 5Yvan MayeD
- 2Saba GoglichidzeD
Form going into Lecce vs Monza
Lecce
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Cagliari7 September 2026
- L0-4AS Roma31 August 2026
- W2-0away to Venezia23 August 2026
Monza
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Parma6 September 2026
- L2-3Udinese29 August 2026
- L1-4away to Inter22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Lecce | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 9 |
| 16 | Monza | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 22 | -6 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lecce vs Monza
- 16 February 2025Monza 0–0 LecceSerie A
- 15 December 2024Lecce 2–1 MonzaSerie A
- 27 April 2024Lecce 1–1 MonzaSerie A
- 17 September 2023Monza 1–1 LecceSerie A
- 28 May 2023Monza 0–1 LecceSerie A
Leading scorers: Lecce and Monza
Lecce
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Monza
GoalsAssists
- Gustavo Varela81
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Lecce beat Monza 3–2. The model had made a win for Lecce its most likely outcome, at 36%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: L. Coulibaly 3' for Lecce, Tiago Gabriel 10' for Lecce, R. Mangas 20' for Monza, L. Coulibaly 21' for Lecce, E. Zeballos 89' for Monza. On expected goals it finished 1.08–2.79.
How the call on Lecce v Monza has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 33% / 29% / 38% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 36% / 30% / 34%: the biggest move is Monza's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Lecce win36%▲ +3
- Draw30%▲ +1
- Monza win34%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.