Santos vs Cruzeiro Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Santos 2-1 Cruzeiro.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Santos, 26% draw, 26% Cruzeiro — fair odds of 2.08, 3.85 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Santos at 48% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Santos vs Cruzeiro
Line-ups
- 77Gabriel BrazãoG
- 18Igor ViniciusD
- 15Willian ArãoD
- 14Luan PeresD
- 23RodineiM
- 48Gustavo Henrique PereiraM
- 5João SchmidtM
- 7EvertonM
- 8Gabriel BontempoM
- 32B. RollheiserM
- 11RonyF
- 17G. CaballeroF
- 26João Paulo AnaniasD
- 81S. PierriM
- 25Gabriel MeninoM
- 45LimaM
- 28C. OlivaM
- 6ArthurM
- 42João AlencarD
- 30M. TercerosM
- 81Otávio Eleodoro Rezende CostaG
- 23FágnerD
- 15Fabrício BrunoD
- 43João MarceloD
- 27G. RojasD
- 29L. RomeroM
- 7Matheus HenriqueM
- 99K. ArroyoM
- 10Matheus PereiraM
- 8GersonM
- 19Kaio JorgeF
- 5Zé LucasM
- 2Kauã MoraesD
- 11MarquinhosF
- 1CássioG
- 9Bruno RodriguesF
- 97L. RodríguezF
- 16Lucas SilvaM
- 25L. VillalbaD
- 12WilliamD
Form going into Santos vs Cruzeiro
Santos
All competitions we cover
- W3-2away to Internacional6 September 2026
- W1-0away to Corinthians30 August 2026
- D1-1Mirassol23 August 2026
- W3-0away to Vasco da Gama16 August 2026
- L0-2Atletico Paranaense9 August 2026
Cruzeiro
All competitions we cover
- W3-1Atletico Paranaense6 September 2026
- L1-3away to Vasco da Gama30 August 2026
- W2-1Flamengo22 August 2026
- W2-1away to Corinthians16 August 2026
- W3-1Mirassol9 August 2026
What these results say
- Santos scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cruzeiro scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cruzeiro conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Cruzeiro had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Santos | 33 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 49 | 47 | +2 | 47 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 33 | 17 | 6 | 10 | 52 | 46 | +6 | 57 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Santos vs Cruzeiro
- 22 March 2026Cruzeiro 0–0 SantosSerie A
- 7 December 2025Santos 3–0 CruzeiroSerie A
- 10 August 2025Cruzeiro 1–2 SantosSerie A
- 14 September 2023Santos 0–3 CruzeiroSerie A
- 6 May 2023Cruzeiro 2–1 SantosSerie A
Leading scorers: Santos and Cruzeiro
Santos
GoalsAssists
- Gabriel Barbosa153
- Neymar83
Cruzeiro
GoalsAssists
- Kaio Jorge122
- Matheus Pereira97
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Santos beat Cruzeiro 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Santos at 48%. The goals: Benjamín Rollheiser 28' for Santos, Gabriel Bontempo 32' for Santos, Matheus Pereira 90' for Cruzeiro.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.