Santos
vs
Cruzeiro
Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Santos 2-1 Cruzeiro.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Santos, 27% draw, 26% Cruzeiro — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Santos 1.92, Cruzeiro 1.11.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Santos vs Cruzeiro
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Santos at 47% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Santos vs Cruzeiro
Santos
- W3-2away to Internacional6 September 2026
- W1-0away to Corinthians30 August 2026
- D1-1Mirassol23 August 2026
- W3-0away to Vasco da Gama16 August 2026
Cruzeiro
- W3-1Atletico Paranaense6 September 2026
- L1-3away to Vasco da Gama30 August 2026
- W2-1Flamengo22 August 2026
- W2-1away to Corinthians16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Santos | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 39 | 39 | 0 | 35 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 39 | 39 | 0 | 42 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Santos vs Cruzeiro
- 22 March 2026Cruzeiro 0–0 SantosSerie A
- 7 December 2025Santos 3–0 CruzeiroSerie A
- 10 August 2025Cruzeiro 1–2 SantosSerie A
- 14 September 2023Santos 0–3 CruzeiroSerie A
- 6 May 2023Cruzeiro 2–1 SantosSerie A
- 24 November 2019Santos 4–1 CruzeiroSerie A
Leading scorers: Santos and Cruzeiro
Santos
- Gabriel Barbosa10 goals2 assists
Cruzeiro
- Matheus Pereira8 goals4 assists
- Kaio Jorge7 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Santos carry a model rating of 6.8 against 6.67 for Cruzeiro. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.92 goals for Santos and 1.11 for Cruzeiro. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Santos rate 0.96 in attack and 1.07 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cruzeiro rate 0.86 and 1.23.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Cruzeiro, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Santos the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Santos against 1.11 for Cruzeiro. Santos's attack/defence rating is 0.96/1.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.86/1.23 for Cruzeiro.