Chapecoense
vs
Mirassol
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Chapecoense 1–2 Mirassol
The model makes it 30% Chapecoense, 27% draw, 43% Mirassol — fair odds of 3.33, 3.70 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Chapecoense 1.22, Mirassol 1.58.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,008 settled matches.
One-sided: Mirassol are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- Chapecoense are bottom on 18 points from 30 games; Mirassol are 14th on 36 points from 31 games — Serie A.
- Chapecoense have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Botafogo.
- Mirassol have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Internacional.
- Last 5 meetings: Mirassol 4 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 10 May 2026, ended Mirassol 1–1 Chapecoense.
More Brazilian Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Chapecoense vs Mirassol
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Mirassol at 43% here. Across 4,324 settled matches (as of 20 October 2026), 2,011 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Chapecoense vs Mirassol
Chapecoense
- L0-1away to Botafogo17 October 2026
- L1-4Atletico Paranaense12 October 2026
- L0-4away to Vitoria7 October 2026
- D1-1away to Atletico Mineiro19 September 2026
- L1-2Internacional12 September 2026
Mirassol
- W2-0Internacional16 October 2026
- L0-1away to Bahia11 October 2026
- D1-1away to RB Bragantino7 October 2026
- W2-0Botafogo19 September 2026
- D2-2Vitoria13 September 2026
What these results say
- Chapecoense did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Chapecoense conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Mirassol scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Mirassol had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Chapecoense | 30 | 3 | 9 | 18 | 30 | 62 | -32 | 18 |
| 14 | Mirassol | 31 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 36 | 44 | -8 | 36 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Chapecoense vs Mirassol
Chapecoense and Mirassol have met 5 times in the records we hold, Mirassol has won 4 of them to Chapecoense's 0, with 1 drawn.
The record
They drew 1–1 at Mirassol on 10 May 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chapecoense | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 |
| Mirassol | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 |
Between them these 5 meetings produced 6 goals, an average of 1.20 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 10 May 2026
Serie AMirassol 1–1 Chapecoense - 24 Nov 2024
Serie BMirassol 1–0 Chapecoense - 5 Aug 2024
Serie BChapecoense 0–1 Mirassol - 29 Jul 2023
Serie BChapecoense 0–1 Mirassol - 15 Apr 2023
Serie BMirassol 1–0 Chapecoense
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Chapecoense | 0.70 | 1.66 |
| Mirassol | 0.85 | 1.10 |
The two sides
Chapecoense carry a model rating of 6.42 against 6.72 for Mirassol. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.22 goals for Chapecoense and 1.58 for Mirassol. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Chapecoense rate 0.70 in attack and 1.66 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Mirassol rate 0.85 and 1.10.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,080 correct results out of 4,327 settled predictions (48%), with 438 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Mirassol the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Chapecoense against 1.58 for Mirassol. Chapecoense's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.66 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/1.1 for Mirassol.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Chapecoense at home · Mirassol away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Chapecoense 30, Mirassol 31.
Chapecoense score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Mirassol have let in 12 there.
Mirassol score most often in the 16–30 minute window (8 goals); Chapecoense have let in 12 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Chapecoense
- at Remo18 Nov · Serie Awin 21%
- vs Cruzeiro22 Nov · Serie Awin 25%
Mirassol
- vs Atletico Mineiro18 Nov · Serie Awin 40%
- at Fluminense22 Nov · Serie Awin 23%
- vs Atletico Paranaense29 Nov · Serie Awin 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.