Ben Aknoun
vs
MC Oran
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Ben Aknoun 1–0 MC Oran
The model makes it 36% Ben Aknoun, 29% draw, 35% MC Oran — fair odds of 2.78, 3.45 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Ben Aknoun 1.29, MC Oran 1.26.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 961 settled matches.
A tight game: Ben Aknoun and MC Oran are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Ben Aknoun's rating is built from 35 Ligue 1 (Algeria) matches and MC Oran's from 36, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Ben Aknoun are 10th on 6 points from 5 games; MC Oran are top on 14 points from 6 games — Ligue 1.
- Ben Aknoun are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Olympique Akbou.
- MC Oran are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 0-0 draw away to JS El Biar.
- Last 4 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 24 January 2026, ended Ben Aknoun 2–1 MC Oran.
More Ligue 1 (Algeria) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Ben Aknoun vs MC Oran
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ben Aknoun at 36% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 3,490 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Ben Aknoun vs MC Oran
Ben Aknoun
Ligue 1
- L1-2away to Olympique Akbou16 October 2026
- D2-2JS El Biar7 October 2026
- D1-1away to Khenchela18 September 2026
- D2-2US Biskra10 September 2026
- W1-0away to ES Setif3 September 2026
MC Oran
Ligue 1
- D0-0away to JS El Biar23 October 2026
- W1-0Khenchela17 October 2026
- W1-0away to US Biskra13 October 2026
- D0-0ES Setif8 October 2026
- W1-0away to ASO Chlef18 September 2026
What these results say
- Ben Aknoun scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Ben Aknoun failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Ben Aknoun conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- MC Oran went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- MC Oran kept a clean sheet in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for MC Oran had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Ben Aknoun | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 6 |
| 1 | MC Oran | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | +5 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Ben Aknoun vs MC Oran
- 24 January 2026Ben Aknoun 2–1 MC OranLigue 1
- 21 August 2025MC Oran 2–1 Ben AknounLigue 1
- 26 May 2024MC Oran 1–0 Ben AknounLigue 1
- 5 January 2024Ben Aknoun 2–1 MC OranLigue 1
The two sides
Ben Aknoun carry a model rating of 6.29 against 6.44 for MC Oran. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.29 goals for Ben Aknoun and 1.26 for MC Oran. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ben Aknoun rate 0.65 in attack and 2.05 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; MC Oran rate 0.51 and 1.22.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour MC Oran, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Ben Aknoun a 1.3% chance of the title and MC Oran 12%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,209 correct results out of 4,585 settled predictions (48%), with 455 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ben Aknoun the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Ben Aknoun against 1.26 for MC Oran. Ben Aknoun's attack/defence rating is 0.65/2.05 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/1.22 for MC Oran.
How the model reaches 36% for Ben Aknoun to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Ben Aknoun to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Ben Aknoun's ratings take away 27 points and MC Oran's ratings add 19 points, which lands on the published 36%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Ben Aknoun's ratings17%−27
- MC Oran's ratings36%+19
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Ben Aknoun at home · MC Oran away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: Ben Aknoun 5, MC Oran 6.
Ben Aknoun score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); MC Oran have let in 0 there.
MC Oran score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Ben Aknoun have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Ben Aknoun
- vs CR Belouizdad8 Nov · Ligue 1win 32%
MC Oran
- vs CR Belouizdad21 Nov · Ligue 1win 37%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.