Mantova
vs
Hellas Verona
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Mantova 2–1 Hellas Verona
The model makes it 46% Mantova, 24% draw, 30% Hellas Verona — fair odds of 2.17, 4.17 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Mantova 1.96, Hellas Verona 1.47.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,115 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Mantova's rating is built from 45 Serie B matches and Hellas Verona's from 7, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 850 matches.
Key facts
- Mantova are 2nd on 14 points from 7 games; Hellas Verona are 12th on 8 points from 7 games — Serie B.
- Mantova have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Palermo.
- Hellas Verona have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Catanzaro.
More Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Mantova vs Hellas Verona
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Mantova at 46% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Mantova vs Hellas Verona
Mantova
Serie B
- L0-2Palermo17 October 2026
- W3-1away to Catanzaro11 October 2026
- D2-2Pisa20 September 2026
- W2-0Sampdoria13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Cesena6 September 2026
Hellas Verona
Serie B
- D2-2Catanzaro16 October 2026
- L2-3away to Modena11 October 2026
- W2-1Vicenza Virtus20 September 2026
- L1-3away to Benevento11 September 2026
- W5-0Arezzo6 September 2026
What these results say
- Mantova scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Mantova conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hellas Verona scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Hellas Verona had three goals or more.
- Hellas Verona conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Mantova | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 14 |
| 12 | Hellas Verona | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Mantova and Hellas Verona
Mantova
GoalsAssists
- F. Ruocco50
Hellas Verona
GoalsAssists
- D. Mosquera60
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Mantova carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.58 for Hellas Verona. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.96 goals for Mantova and 1.47 for Hellas Verona. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Mantova rate 0.80 in attack and 1.39 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Hellas Verona rate 0.91 and 1.64.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Mantova a 4.4% chance of the title and Hellas Verona 1.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Mantova the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Mantova against 1.47 for Hellas Verona. Mantova's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.39 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.91/1.64 for Hellas Verona.
How the model reaches 46% for Mantova to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Mantova to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, Mantova's ratings take away 13 points and Hellas Verona's ratings add 17 points, which lands on the published 46%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Mantova's ratings29%−13
- Hellas Verona's ratings46%+17
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Mantova at home · Hellas Verona away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
MantovaHellas Verona
Mantova are 2nd after 7 Serie B matches (between 1st and 3rd so far); Hellas Verona are 12th after 7 (between 5th and 16th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Juve Stabia −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Mantova 7, Hellas Verona 7.
Hellas Verona score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Mantova have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Mantova
- at Avellino21 Nov · Serie Bwin 32%
- vs Arezzo24 Nov · Serie Bwin 56%
Hellas Verona
- vs Cesena21 Nov · Serie Bwin 53%
- at Virtus Entella24 Nov · Serie Bwin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.