Catanzaro
vs
Ascoli
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Catanzaro 1–0 Ascoli
The model makes it 36% Catanzaro, 29% draw, 35% Ascoli — fair odds of 2.78, 3.45 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Catanzaro 1.25, Ascoli 1.23.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Catanzaro and Ascoli are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Catanzaro are 19th on 3 points from 6 games; Ascoli are 5th on 11 points from 6 games — Serie B.
- Catanzaro have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Mantova.
- Ascoli have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Sudtirol.
- Last 2 meetings: level at 1 win each, 0 draws; the most recent, 10 February 2024, ended Catanzaro 3–2 Ascoli.
More Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Catanzaro vs Ascoli
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Catanzaro at 36% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Catanzaro vs Ascoli
Catanzaro
- L1-3Mantova11 October 2026
- L1-2away to Sampdoria19 September 2026
- W1-0Carrarese12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Sudtirol5 September 2026
- L1-2away to Pisa30 August 2026
Ascoli
- D0-0away to Sudtirol10 October 2026
- W3-1Avellino19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Padova12 September 2026
- W1-0Benevento5 September 2026
- D1-1Carrarese29 August 2026
What these results say
- Catanzaro failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Catanzaro scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Catanzaro conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Ascoli had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Catanzaro | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 3 |
| 5 | Ascoli | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Catanzaro
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 16% today
Ascoli
Chance to finish in the top four · 45% today
From our Serie B season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Catanzaro vs Ascoli
- 10 February 2024Catanzaro 3–2 AscoliSerie B
- 16 December 2023Ascoli 1–0 CatanzaroSerie B
Leading scorers: Catanzaro and Ascoli
Catanzaro
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Ascoli
GoalsAssists
- A. Silipo30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Catanzaro carry a model rating of 6.54 against 6.67 for Ascoli. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.25 goals for Catanzaro and 1.23 for Ascoli. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Catanzaro rate 0.82 in attack and 1.54 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ascoli rate 0.69 and 1.02.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Ascoli, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Catanzaro a 0.4% chance of the title and Ascoli 10.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Catanzaro the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Catanzaro against 1.23 for Ascoli. Catanzaro's attack/defence rating is 0.82/1.54 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.02 for Ascoli.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Catanzaro at home · Ascoli away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
CatanzaroAscoli
Catanzaro are 18th after 6 Serie B matches (between 17th and 19th so far); Ascoli are 4th after 6 (between 2nd and 4th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Juve Stabia −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Catanzaro 6, Ascoli 6.
Catanzaro score most often in the 16–30 minute window (2 goals); Ascoli have let in 2 there.
Ascoli score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Catanzaro have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Catanzaro
- at Benevento27 Oct · Serie Bwin 25%
- vs Padova31 Oct · Serie Bwin 48%
- at Cesena7 Nov · Serie Bwin 36%
- vs Palermo21 Nov · Serie Bwin 34%
Ascoli
- vs Sampdoria27 Oct · Serie Bwin 54%
- at Arezzo1 Nov · Serie Bwin 45%
- vs Palermo6 Nov · Serie Bwin 38%
- vs Vicenza Virtus21 Nov · Serie Bwin 58%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.