Avellino
vs
Padova
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Avellino 1–0 Padova
The model makes it 46% Avellino, 29% draw, 25% Padova — fair odds of 2.17, 3.45 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Avellino 1.49, Padova 0.95.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Avellino are 6th on 10 points from 6 games; Padova are 10th on 7 points from 6 games — Serie B.
- Avellino have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-1 win at home to Sampdoria.
- Padova have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Carrarese.
- Last 5 meetings: Padova 2 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 7 March 2026, ended Avellino 1–0 Padova.
More Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Avellino vs Padova
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Avellino at 46% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Avellino vs Padova
Avellino
- W4-1Sampdoria9 October 2026
- L1-3away to Ascoli19 September 2026
- D1-1Palermo13 September 2026
- W1-0away to Modena6 September 2026
- W3-0Vicenza Virtus29 August 2026
Padova
- L0-2Carrarese11 October 2026
- L1-2away to Palermo19 September 2026
- W1-0Ascoli12 September 2026
- L1-3away to Cremonese6 September 2026
- D1-1Hellas Verona29 August 2026
What these results say
- Avellino scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Padova failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Padova scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Padova conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Avellino | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 10 |
| 10 | Padova | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Avellino
Chance to finish in the top four · 12% today
Padova
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 19% today
From our Serie B season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Avellino vs Padova
- 7 March 2026Avellino 1–0 PadovaSerie B
- 30 September 2025Padova 2–2 AvellinoSerie B
- 3 May 2025Avellino 0–1 PadovaSerie C - Supercoppa Lega Finals
- 9 June 2021Avellino 0–1 PadovaSerie C - Girone A
- 6 June 2021Padova 1–1 AvellinoSerie C - Girone A
Leading scorers: Avellino and Padova
Avellino
GoalsAssists
- R. Russo42
- M. Besaggio30
Padova
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Avellino carry a model rating of 6.53 against 6.44 for Padova. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.49 goals for Avellino and 0.95 for Padova. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Avellino rate 0.73 in attack and 1.39 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Padova rate 0.59 and 1.36.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Avellino a 1.6% chance of the title and Padova 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Avellino the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Avellino against 0.95 for Padova. Avellino's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.39 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.36 for Padova.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Avellino at home · Padova away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Avellino 6, Padova 6.
Avellino score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Padova have let in 1 there.
Padova score most often in the 61–75 minute window (2 goals); Avellino have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Avellino
- at Virtus Entella27 Oct · Serie Bwin 32%
- vs Pisa1 Nov · Serie Bwin 38%
- at Benevento7 Nov · Serie Bwin 24%
- vs Mantova21 Nov · Serie Bwin 39%
Padova
- vs Sudtirol27 Oct · Serie Bwin 34%
- at Catanzaro31 Oct · Serie Bwin 25%
- vs Empoli7 Nov · Serie Bwin 42%
- at Arezzo21 Nov · Serie Bwin 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.