Padova
vs
Empoli
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Padova 1–0 Empoli
The model makes it 41% Padova, 30% draw, 29% Empoli — fair odds of 2.44, 3.33 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Padova 1.33, Empoli 1.02.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,115 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Padova's rating is built from 45 Serie B matches and Empoli's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 850 matches.
Key facts
- Padova are 16th on 7 points from 7 games; Empoli are 15th on 7 points from 8 games — Serie B.
- Padova are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Virtus Entella.
- Empoli have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Vicenza Virtus.
- Last 2 meetings: level at 1 win each, 0 draws; the most recent, 12 April 2026, ended Padova 1–0 Empoli.
More Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Padova vs Empoli
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Padova at 41% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Padova vs Empoli
Padova
Serie B
- L1-2Virtus Entella17 October 2026
- L0-2Carrarese11 October 2026
- L1-2away to Palermo19 September 2026
- W1-0Ascoli12 September 2026
- L1-3away to Cremonese6 September 2026
Empoli
Serie B
- L0-2Vicenza Virtus23 October 2026
- D1-1away to Ascoli17 October 2026
- L2-4Palermo10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Modena20 September 2026
- L0-1Arezzo11 September 2026
What these results say
- Padova failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Padova scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Padova conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Empoli did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Empoli conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Padova | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 7 |
| 15 | Empoli | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Padova vs Empoli
- 12 April 2026Padova 1–0 EmpoliSerie B
- 23 August 2025Empoli 3–1 PadovaSerie B
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Padova carry a model rating of 6.41 against 6.4 for Empoli. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.33 goals for Padova and 1.02 for Empoli. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Padova rate 0.58 in attack and 1.41 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Empoli rate 0.62 and 1.53.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Empoli, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Padova the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Padova against 1.02 for Empoli. Padova's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.41 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.53 for Empoli.
How the model reaches 41% for Padova to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Padova to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, Padova's ratings take away 21 points and Empoli's ratings add 20 points, which lands on the published 41%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Padova's ratings21%−21
- Empoli's ratings41%+20
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Padova at home · Empoli away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Padova 7, Empoli 8.
Padova score most often in the 61–75 minute window (2 goals); Empoli have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Padova
- at Arezzo21 Nov · Serie Bwin 31%
- vs Sampdoria24 Nov · Serie Bwin 44%
Empoli
- vs Pisa21 Nov · Serie Bwin 29%
- at Benevento24 Nov · Serie Bwin 21%
- vs Hellas Verona28 Nov · Serie Bwin 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.