Juve Stabia
vs
Arezzo
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Juve Stabia 1–0 Arezzo
The model makes it 52% Juve Stabia, 26% draw, 22% Arezzo — fair odds of 1.92, 3.85 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Juve Stabia 1.77, Arezzo 0.94.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,486 settled matches.
Edge to Juve Stabia: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Juve Stabia's rating is built from 48 Serie B matches and Arezzo's from 7, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 850 matches.
Key facts
- Juve Stabia are 18th on 5 points from 7 games; Arezzo are 9th on 10 points from 7 games — Serie B.
- Juve Stabia are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Sudtirol.
- Arezzo have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Sampdoria.
More Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Juve Stabia vs Arezzo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Juve Stabia at 52% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 1,113 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Juve Stabia vs Arezzo
Juve Stabia
Serie B
- W3-0Sudtirol18 October 2026
- D1-1away to Virtus Entella10 October 2026
- D1-1Cesena18 September 2026
- D1-1away to Vicenza Virtus12 September 2026
- L0-3Pisa6 September 2026
Arezzo
Serie B
- W2-1away to Sampdoria18 October 2026
- D0-0Cremonese10 October 2026
- L1-4Sudtirol20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Empoli11 September 2026
- L0-5away to Hellas Verona6 September 2026
What these results say
- Juve Stabia failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Juve Stabia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Juve Stabia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Juve Stabia | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 5 |
| 9 | Arezzo | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Juve Stabia and Arezzo
Juve Stabia
GoalsAssists
- Antonio Di Nardo50
Arezzo
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Juve Stabia carry a model rating of 6.56 against 6.37 for Arezzo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.77 goals for Juve Stabia and 0.94 for Arezzo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Juve Stabia rate 0.68 in attack and 1.23 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Arezzo rate 0.66 and 1.74.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Arezzo, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Juve Stabia a 0.3% chance of the title and Arezzo 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Juve Stabia the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Juve Stabia against 0.94 for Arezzo. Juve Stabia's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.23 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.74 for Arezzo.
How the model reaches 52% for Juve Stabia to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Juve Stabia to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, Juve Stabia's ratings take away 15 points and Arezzo's ratings add 25 points, which lands on the published 52%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Juve Stabia's ratings27%−15
- Arezzo's ratings52%+25
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Juve Stabia at home · Arezzo away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Juve StabiaArezzo
Juve Stabia are 18th after 7 Serie B matches (between 18th and 20th so far); Arezzo are 9th after 7 (between 2nd and 13th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Juve Stabia −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Juve Stabia 7, Arezzo 7.
Arezzo score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Juve Stabia have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Juve Stabia
- at Modena21 Nov · Serie Bwin 27%
- vs Catanzaro24 Nov · Serie Bwin 43%
Arezzo
- vs Padova21 Nov · Serie Bwin 40%
- at Mantova24 Nov · Serie Bwin 20%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.