6 August 2026, 17:00 UTC

Red Bull Salzburg vs Pafos UEFA Europa League prediction & result

Stelios Kyriakides Stadium, Pafos
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Red Bull Salzburg 1-0 Pafos.

Before kick-off the model made it 55% Red Bull Salzburg, 21% draw, 24% Pafos — fair odds of 1.82, 4.76 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

The tie

First leg of the UEFA Europa League 3rd Qualifying Round tie. Second leg: Pafos v Red Bull Salzburg, 13 Aug →

Red Bull Salzburg went through 4–3 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

Red Bull Salzburg at 55%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Red Bull Salzburg96%Draw4%Pafos0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

36'
David Luiz
43'
🔁D. Quinaout: K. Sema
46'
Ken Sema
🔁S. Diabateout: B. Mazurek
58'
🔁D. Redzicout: S. Kitano
64'
🔁Y. Vertessenout: K. Konate
65'
🔁E. Baidooout: H. Tabakovic
70'
🔁G. Diakiteout: E. Aguilar
70'
Abubakr Barry
75'
80'
🔁A. Britoout: M. Mammadov
82'
Ivan Šunjić
88'
🔁V. Dragomirout: Pepe
⚽H. Tabakovic
88'
90+3'
Ken Sema
90+3'
Ken Sema

Match stats — Red Bull Salzburg vs Pafos

59%Possession41%
3On target1
13Corners0

Line-ups

Red Bull Salzburg 4-2-3-1
  • 52C. ZawieschitzkyG
  • 18N. VeratschnigD
  • 44K. BomaD
  • 47V. ZabranskyD
  • 31D. SchmidD
  • 5S. DiabateM
  • 32A. BarryM
  • 20E. BaidooF
  • 30G. DiakiteF
  • 23D. RedzicM
  • 11Y. VertessenF
Substitutes
  • 41N. SarcevicG
  • 14M. KjaergaardM
  • 21T. DrexlerD
  • 39L. MorgallaD
  • 9H. TabakovicF
  • 19K. KonateF
  • 13F. KratzigD
  • 8S. KitanoM
  • 43E. AguilarF
Coach: Danny Rohl
Pafos 3-5-2
  • 99R. MajeckiG
  • 5D. GoldarD
  • 4David LuizD
  • 14N. IoannouD
  • 8D. QuinaM
  • 50A. BritoM
  • 26I. SunjicM
  • 6GugaM
  • 20BielF
  • 18LeleF
  • 30V. DragomirM
Substitutes
  • 71M. PapastylianouG
  • 82P. PetrouG
  • 88PepeM
  • 13N. Moumi NgamaleuM
  • 7BrunoD
  • 47M. MammadovF
  • 60C. Efzona
  • 12K. SemaM
  • 42G. MichaelM
Coach: Albert Celades

Form going into Red Bull Salzburg vs Pafos

Red Bull Salzburg

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0TSV Hartberg1 August 2026

Pafos

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0HNK Hajduk Split30 July 2026
  • L0-2away to HNK Hajduk Split23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

The result against the call

Red Bull Salzburg beat Pafos 1–0. The model had made a win for Red Bull Salzburg its most likely outcome, at 55%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: H. Tabakovic 88' for Red Bull Salzburg. Sent off: Ken Sema (Pafos) 90+3'.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.