Red Bull Salzburg
vs
Pafos
The model makes it 55% Red Bull Salzburg, 21% draw, 24% Pafos — fair odds of 1.82, 4.76 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Red Bull Salzburg 2.19, Pafos 1.40.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Red Bull Salzburg
- W1-0TSV Hartberg1 August 2026
Pafos
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Leading scorers
Red Bull Salzburg
- K. Konaté1 goals
Pafos
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Red Bull Salzburg carry a model rating of 6.55 against 6.47 for Pafos. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Red Bull Salzburg W; Pafos L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.19 goals for Red Bull Salzburg and 1.40 for Pafos. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Red Bull Salzburg rate 0.86 in attack and 1.59 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Pafos rate 0.63 and 1.35.
That points to 70% for over two and a half goals and 67% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 3-1 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 202 correct results out of 432 settled predictions (47%), with 39 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Red Bull Salzburg the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Red Bull Salzburg against 1.4 for Pafos. Red Bull Salzburg's attack/defence rating is 0.86/1.59 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.35 for Pafos.