6 August 2026, 18:00 UTC

Ajax vs Shelbourne UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Ajax 3-1 Shelbourne.

Before kick-off the model made it 90% Ajax, 7% draw, 3% Shelbourne — fair odds of 1.11, 14.29 and 33.33.

Most likely scoreline: 3-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

The tie

First leg of the UEFA Europa Conference League 3rd Qualifying Round tie. Second leg: Shelbourne v Ajax, 13 Aug →

Ajax went through 5–3 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

Ajax at 90%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Ajax99%Draw1%Shelbourne0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

•Mika Godts
4'
⚽M. Godts (pen)
6'
⚽O. Wijndalassist: S. Berghuis
22'
47'
Evan Caffrey
⚽K. Dolbergassist: S. Berghuis
50'
⚽Mika Godts (pen)
57'
🔁D. Klaassenout: Marcos Leonardo
58'
🔁O. Gloukhout: J. Mokio
58'
🔁S. Berghuisout: O. Edvardsen
64'
🔁K. Dolbergout: J. Brandt
65'
73'
🔁S. Mooreout: R. Freitas
🔁M. Godtsout: M. Carrizo
77'
80'
🔁J. Henry-Francisout: A. Coote
80'
🔁K. McInroyout: O. Casey
84'
⚽D. Kelly
Jorthy Mokio
85'
90+3'
🔁S. Boneout: J. Roche
90+3'
🔁J. Norrisout: S. Gannon

Match stats — Ajax vs Shelbourne

71%Possession29%
32Shots3
11On target3
14Corners0

Line-ups

Ajax 4-1-4-1
  • 26M. PaesG
  • 3A. GaaeiD
  • 30A. BouwmanD
  • 17D. BlindD
  • 5O. WijndalD
  • 6Y. RegeerM
  • 23S. BerghuisM
  • 18D. KlaassenM
  • 10O. GloukhM
  • 11M. GodtsM
  • 9K. DolbergF
Substitutes
  • 1M. ter StegenG
  • 22J. HeerkensG
  • 20O. EdvardsenF
  • 99T. ArokodareF
  • 38Marcos LeonardoF
  • 15Y. BaasD
  • 68A. OuazaneM
  • 8J. BrandtM
  • 12Caio HenriqueD
Coach: Michel
Shelbourne 5-4-1
  • 19E. BeachG
  • 25M. MbengD
  • 15S. BoneD
  • 29P. BarrettD
  • 4K. LedwidgeD
  • 18J. NorrisD
  • 22S. MooreM
  • 21J. Henry-FrancisM
  • 23K. McInroyM
  • 27E. CaffreyM
  • 17D. KellyF
Substitutes
  • 13M. JohnsonG
  • 73F. MoylanG
  • 14A. CooteM
  • 6J. LunneyM
  • 44D. RingF
  • 55J. RocheD
  • 2S. GannonD
  • 11M. OdubekoF
  • 20R. FreitasF
Coach: Lorcan Fitzgerald

Form going into Ajax vs Shelbourne

Ajax

All competitions we cover

  • W4-1Vojvodina30 July 2026
  • W4-1away to Vojvodina23 July 2026

Shelbourne

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2away to Kalju Nomme30 July 2026
  • W5-2Kalju Nomme23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ajax and Shelbourne in their domestic leagues

#TeamLeaguePWDLGFGAGDPts
11AjaxUEFA Europa Conference League320193+66
4ShelbournePremier Division361213115250+249

Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: UEFA Europa Conference League · Premier Division

Leading scorers: Ajax and Shelbourne

Ajax

GoalsAssists

  • T. Arokodare63
  • D. Klaassen60
  • O. Gloukh52

Shelbourne

GoalsAssists

  • H. Wood85
  • D. Kelly84
  • J. Martin82

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Ajax beat Shelbourne 3–1. The model had made a win for Ajax its most likely outcome, at 90%, so the call held; the score it named was 3–0. The goals: M. Godts (penalty) 6' for Ajax, O. Wijndal 22' for Ajax, K. Dolberg 50' for Ajax, D. Kelly 84' for Shelbourne.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.