Ajax
vs
Shelbourne
The model makes it 90% Ajax, 7% draw, 3% Shelbourne — fair odds of 1.11, 14.29 and 33.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0 (9%).
Expected goals: Ajax 3.92, Shelbourne 0.76.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 84%, under 2.5: 16%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
A clear gap in the ratings
Ajax carry a model rating of 6.75 against 6.08 for Shelbourne. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Ajax W-W; Shelbourne W-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.92 goals for Ajax and 0.76 for Shelbourne. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ajax rate 0.91 in attack and 1.11 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Shelbourne rate 0.49 and 2.28.
That points to 84% for over two and a half goals and 52% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 3-0 (9%), 4-0 (9%), 5-0 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 202 correct results out of 432 settled predictions (47%), with 39 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ajax the highest probability at 90%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.92 expected goals for Ajax against 0.76 for Shelbourne. Ajax's attack/defence rating is 0.91/1.11 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/2.28 for Shelbourne.