6 August 2026, 19:00 UTC

Benfica vs Heart of Midlothian UEFA Europa League prediction & result

Lisbon
Full time6 – 1

Final score: Benfica 6-1 Heart of Midlothian.

Before kick-off the model made it 95% Benfica, 4% draw, 1% Heart of Midlothian — fair odds of 1.05, 25.00 and 100.00.

Most likely scoreline: 4-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

The tie

First leg of the UEFA Europa League 3rd Qualifying Round tie. Second leg: Heart of Midlothian v Benfica, 13 Aug →

Benfica went through 7–2 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

Benfica at 95%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Benfica99%Draw1%Heart of Midlothian0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Rafa Silvaassist: L. Barreiro
3'
⚽T. Araujoassist: G. Sudakov
23'
Gianluca Prestianni
33'
41'
Laurent Mendy
⚽V. Pavlidis (pen)
42'
46'
🔁H. Milneout: J. McCart
46'
🔁L. Mendyout: T. Renaud
⚽G. Prestianni
59'
64'
🔁P. Kaboreout: S. Guendouz
🔁V. Pavlidisout: J. Duran
65'
🔁E. Barrenecheaout: R. Rios
65'
🔁G. Sudakovout: A. Schjelderup
65'
70'
Blair Spittal
72'
⚽T. Renaudassist: S. Guendouz
🔁C. Lengletout: Manu
73'
73'
🔁C. Millerout: J. McPake
Alexander Bah
79'
84'
Oisin McEntee
🔁G. Prestianniout: J. Kaminski
85'
86'
🔁A. Kyziridisout: S. Kerjota
⚽J. Duranassist: A. Schjelderup
87'
89'
Cláudio Braga
⚽A. Schjelderup (pen)
90'

Match stats — Benfica vs Heart of Midlothian

67%Possession33%
11On target2
6Corners2

Line-ups

Benfica 4-2-3-1
  • 24S. SoaresG
  • 6A. BahD
  • 44T. AraujoD
  • 2C. LengletD
  • 26S. DahlD
  • 18L. BarreiroM
  • 5E. BarrenecheaM
  • 25G. PrestianniM
  • 10G. SudakovM
  • 27Rafa SilvaM
  • 14V. PavlidisF
Substitutes
  • 1A. TrubinG
  • 13J. KaminskiM
  • 22J. DuranF
  • 16ManuM
  • 62J. NetoD
  • 72AnisioF
  • 33Gabriel Indio
  • 11D. LukebakioM
  • 17A. DedicD
Coach: Marco Silva
Heart of Midlothian 4-4-2
  • 1B. ReusG
  • 23J. AltenaD
  • 6O. McEnteeD
  • 17S. FindlayD
  • 18H. MilneD
  • 7C. MillerM
  • 78L. MendyM
  • 16B. SpittalM
  • 89A. KyziridisM
  • 10C. BragaF
  • 11P. KaboreF
Substitutes
  • 30R. FultonG
  • 28Z. ClarkG
  • 29S. KerjotaF
  • 15J. McPakeM
  • 22T. MagnussonM
  • 77A. Ba-SyF
  • 5J. McCartD
  • 12T. RenaudM
  • 19S. GuendouzF
Coach: Wouter Vrancken

Form going into Benfica vs Heart of Midlothian

Benfica

All competitions we cover

  • W5-0FC St. Gallen30 July 2026
  • L1-2away to FC St. Gallen23 July 2026

Heart of Midlothian

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2away to Aberdeen1 August 2026
  • L0-2Sturm Graz28 July 2026
  • L0-4away to Sturm Graz21 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Leading scorers: Benfica and Heart of Midlothian

Benfica

GoalsAssists

  • G. Prestianni22

Heart of Midlothian

No leading scorers listed yet.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Benfica beat Heart of Midlothian 6–1. The model had made a win for Benfica its most likely outcome, at 95%, so the call held; the score it named was 4–0. The goals: Rafa Silva 3' for Benfica, T. Araujo 23' for Benfica, V. Pavlidis (penalty) 42' for Benfica, G. Prestianni 59' for Benfica, T. Renaud 72' for Heart of Midlothian, J. Duran 87' for Benfica, A. Schjelderup (penalty) 90' for Benfica.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.