Hradec Králové
vs
Beşiktaş
The model makes it 52% Hradec Králové, 23% draw, 25% Beşiktaş — fair odds of 1.92, 4.35 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Hradec Králové 1.92, Beşiktaş 1.27.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Hradec Králové
- D0-0away to Bohemians 19052 August 2026
- W2-1Pardubice26 July 2026
Beşiktaş
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Domestic league positions
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Hradec Králové | Czech Liga | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Beşiktaş has not started the league season yet. Full tables
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Hradec Králové carry a model rating of 6.83 against 6.77 for Beşiktaş. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Hradec Králové W-D; Beşiktaş W-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.92 goals for Hradec Králové and 1.27 for Beşiktaş. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hradec Králové rate 0.78 in attack and 0.85 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Beşiktaş rate 1.07 and 1.30.
That points to 62% for over two and a half goals and 62% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 202 correct results out of 432 settled predictions (47%), with 39 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hradec Králové the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Hradec Králové against 1.27 for Beşiktaş. Hradec Králové's attack/defence rating is 0.78/0.85 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.07/1.3 for Beşiktaş.