Aucas
vs
Independiente del Valle
Liga Pro prediction
Our model says: Aucas 1–2 Independiente del Valle
The model makes it 30% Aucas, 26% draw, 44% Independiente del Valle — fair odds of 3.33, 3.85 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Aucas 1.35, Independiente del Valle 1.73.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
Edge to Independiente del Valle: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Aucas's rating is built from 73 Ecuador LigaPro matches and Independiente del Valle's from 73, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Aucas are 5th on 51 points from 33 games; Independiente del Valle are top on 78 points from 33 games — Liga Pro, Championship Group.
- Aucas have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to LDU de Quito.
- Independiente del Valle have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Universidad Catolica Quito.
- Last 6 meetings: Independiente del Valle 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 10 October 2026, ended Independiente del Valle 2–1 Aucas.
More Ecuador LigaPro predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Aucas vs Independiente del Valle
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Independiente del Valle at 44% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Aucas vs Independiente del Valle
Aucas
Liga Pro
- D1-1LDU de Quito17 October 2026
- L1-2away to Independiente del Valle10 October 2026
- L1-2Macara19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Manta FC12 September 2026
- D1-1Barcelona SC7 September 2026
Independiente del Valle
Liga Pro
- D0-0Universidad Catolica Quito23 October 2026
- L0-1away to Macara17 October 2026
- W2-1Aucas10 October 2026
- W3-2away to Libertad13 September 2026
- W3-1Macara5 September 2026
What these results say
- Aucas did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Aucas scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Aucas conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Independiente del Valle conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Aucas | 33 | 14 | 9 | 10 | 36 | 33 | +3 | 51 |
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 33 | 25 | 3 | 5 | 75 | 35 | +40 | 78 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Aucas vs Independiente del Valle
- 10 October 2026Independiente del Valle 2–1 AucasLiga Pro
- 16 July 2026Aucas 0–3 Independiente del ValleLiga Pro
- 14 March 2026Independiente del Valle 2–2 AucasLiga Pro
- 19 July 2025Independiente del Valle 2–1 AucasLiga Pro
- 28 March 2025Aucas 1–2 Independiente del ValleLiga Pro
- 1 September 2024Aucas 0–2 Independiente del ValleLiga Pro
Leading scorers: Aucas and Independiente del Valle
Aucas
No player in Liga Pro's leading scorers — 36 league goals as a side.
Independiente del Valle
GoalsAssists
- D. Reasco94
- C. González90
- M. Perelló84
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Aucas carry a model rating of 6.51 against 6.79 for Independiente del Valle. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.35 goals for Aucas and 1.73 for Independiente del Valle. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Aucas rate 0.65 in attack and 1.29 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Independiente del Valle rate 1.11 and 1.28.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Aucas a 0% chance of the title and Independiente del Valle 100%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Independiente del Valle the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Aucas against 1.73 for Independiente del Valle. Aucas's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.11/1.28 for Independiente del Valle.
How the model reaches 44% for Independiente del Valle to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Independiente del Valle to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Aucas's ratings add 17 points and Independiente del Valle's ratings take away 2 points, which lands on the published 44%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Aucas's ratings46%+17
- Independiente del Valle's ratings44%−2
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Aucas at home · Independiente del Valle away
League matches only, Liga Pro, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Pro matches this season: Aucas 33, Independiente del Valle 33.
Independiente del Valle score most often in the 46–60 minute window (16 goals); Aucas have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Aucas
- at LDU de Quito22 Nov · Liga Prowin 25%
- at Barcelona SC29 Nov · Liga Prowin 23%
- vs Universidad Catolica Quito6 Dec · Liga Prowin 35%
Independiente del Valle
- vs Macara22 Nov · Liga Prowin 53%
- at Universidad Catolica Quito29 Nov · Liga Prowin 35%
- at LDU de Quito6 Dec · Liga Prowin 39%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.