Union Santa Fe
vs
Central Cordoba de Santiago
The model makes it 53% Union Santa Fe, 22% draw, 25% Central Cordoba de Santiago — fair odds of 1.89, 4.55 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Union Santa Fe 2.14, Central Cordoba de Santiago 1.42.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Union Santa Fe
- W2-1Lanus6 August 2026
- L0-2away to Gimnasia Mendoza1 August 2026
- D2-2away to Platense25 July 2026
- L0-2away to Belgrano Cordoba12 May 2026
- W2-1away to Independiente Rivadavia10 May 2026
Central Cordoba de Santiago
- W1-0San Lorenzo4 August 2026
- L0-2Atletico Tucuman31 July 2026
- L0-1away to Gimnasia Mendoza24 July 2026
- L1-2Boca Juniors2 May 2026
- D0-0away to Lanus24 April 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Union Santa Fe | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 24 | 20 | +4 | 21 |
| 13 | Central Cordoba de Santiago | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Union Santa Fe vs Central Cordoba de Santiago
- 7 February 2026Central Cordoba de Santiago 1–0 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
- 10 October 2025Central Cordoba de Santiago 3–1 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
- 6 April 2025Union Santa Fe 1–0 Central Cordoba de SantiagoLiga Profesional Argentina
- 4 October 2024Union Santa Fe 0–2 Central Cordoba de SantiagoLiga Profesional Argentina
- 19 March 2024Union Santa Fe 2–2 Central Cordoba de SantiagoCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 1 November 2023Central Cordoba de Santiago 2–0 Union Santa FeCopa de la Liga Profesional
Leading scorers
Union Santa Fe
- C. Tarragona9 goals1 assists
Central Cordoba de Santiago
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Union Santa Fe carry a model rating of 6.59 against 6.54 for Central Cordoba de Santiago. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Union Santa Fe W-L-D-L-W; Central Cordoba de Santiago D-L-L-L-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.14 goals for Union Santa Fe and 1.42 for Central Cordoba de Santiago. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Union Santa Fe rate 0.77 in attack and 1.30 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Central Cordoba de Santiago rate 0.78 and 1.47.
That points to 69% for over two and a half goals and 67% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 3-1 (7%).
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Union Santa Fe a 1.9% chance of the title and Central Cordoba de Santiago 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 241 correct results out of 502 settled predictions (48%), with 50 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Union Santa Fe the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.14 expected goals for Union Santa Fe against 1.42 for Central Cordoba de Santiago. Union Santa Fe's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.47 for Central Cordoba de Santiago.