Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Ludogorets UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result
Final score: Hapoel Tel Aviv 2-0 Ludogorets.
Before kick-off the model made it 26% Hapoel Tel Aviv, 27% draw, 47% Ludogorets — fair odds of 3.85, 3.70 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ludogorets at 47% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 22Assaf TzurG
- 97Marcus CocoD
- 5Fernand MayemboD
- 4ChicoD
- 16Doron LeidnerD
- 98FalcãoM
- 6Andrian KraevM
- 11Stav TorialM
- 51Omri AltmanF
- 10Xande SilvaF
- 9Emmanuel BoatengF
- 15Roee AlkokinM
- 27Mor BuskilaF
- 44Daniel DappaF
- 18Tal ArchelD
- 21Shahar PivenD
- 13Shon Ben NesherG
- 33Yanal BazdogG
- 20Or IsraelovD
- 8Yonatan FerberM
- 39Hendrik BonmannG
- 17SonD
- 15Edvin KurtulusD
- 3Anton NedyalkovD
- 27Vinicius NogueiraD
- 26Filip KaločM
- 7Alberto SalidoF
- 14Petar StanićM
- 20Aguibou CamaraM
- 29Yves Erick BileF
- 12Rwan CruzF
- 18Ivajlo ChochevM
- 37Bernard TekpeteyM
- 9Kwadwo DuahF
- 55Idan NachmiasD
- 2Joel AnderssonD
- 1Sergio PadtG
- 67Aleksandar PanayotovG
- 24Olivier VerdonD
- 42Simeon ShishkovD
Form going into Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Ludogorets
Hapoel Tel Aviv
No earlier matches on record this season.
Ludogorets
- W1-0Lokomotiv Plovdiv18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Hapoel Tel Aviv and Ludogorets in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | Ligat Ha'al | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 7 |
| 2 | Ludogorets | First League | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 23 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Ligat Ha'al · First League
Head-to-head: Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Ludogorets
- 23 July 2026Hapoel Tel Aviv 0–0 LudogoretsUEFA Europa Conference League
Leading scorers: Hapoel Tel Aviv and Ludogorets
Hapoel Tel Aviv
- D. Owusu2 goals
- E. Boateng1 goals1 assists
- R. Alkokin1 goals1 assists
Ludogorets
No player in First League's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.