Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna First League prediction & result
Final score: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-0 Cherno More Varna.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Lokomotiv Plovdiv, 29% draw, 30% Cherno More Varna — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
All Bulgarian First League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lokomotiv Plovdiv at 41% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 1B. MilosavljevicG
- 13Lucas RyanD
- 11R. LeijtenM
- 5T. PavlovD
- 2A. CovaD
- 12E. AliM
- 22I. IvanovM
- 44M. PetrovicD
- 39P. UmarbaevM
- 29C. LongvilleF
- 7S. IdrizM
- 40P. ZovkoG
- 9A. VelevF
- 4A. ChindrisD
- 3D. Ali
- 99J. Lamy
- 6M. TrdanM
- 30A. AleksandrovM
- 10Y. DzhelepovF
- 19D. KirashkiD
- 81K. TomovG
- 13E. NyagolovD
- 37V. KerchevD
- 8A. DonchevD
- 7M. BarandasF
- 71V. PanayotovM
- 11M. AchiM
- 3Z. AtanasovD
- 24D. TelesM
- 17I. Tasev
- 10C. SidneyF
- 31D. HristovG
- 20A. Kolev
- 14A. TodorovM
- 29B. BeyhanM
- 26Joao BandaroD
- 22N. KostadinovM
- 50E. TombakD
- 99I. Bounaas
- 9J. PadillaF
Form going into Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- L0-2away to CSKA 194828 August 2026
Cherno More Varna
- L1-3away to CSKA Sofia30 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 8 |
| 14 | Cherno More Varna | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna
- 6 September 2026Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–0 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
- 12 May 2026Cherno More Varna 2–0 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
- 26 April 2026Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0–1 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
- 15 February 2026Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–1 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
- 23 August 2025Cherno More Varna 1–1 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
- 8 February 2025Cherno More Varna 1–2 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.