Lokomotiv Plovdiv
vs
Cherno More Varna
First League prediction
The model makes it 44% Lokomotiv Plovdiv, 28% draw, 28% Cherno More Varna — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1.41, Cherno More Varna 1.09.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- L1-2Dunav Ruse16 August 2026
- L0-2away to Levski Sofia7 August 2026
- L0-1away to Spartak Varna3 August 2026
- W2-1Septemvri Sofia26 July 2026
- L0-1away to Ludogorets18 July 2026
Cherno More Varna
- W3-1Dunav Ruse21 August 2026
- L1-4away to CSKA 194814 August 2026
- L2-3Ludogorets9 August 2026
- L0-1away to Botev Plovdiv1 August 2026
- L0-3Spartak Varna26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 3 |
| 9 | Cherno More Varna | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Lokomotiv Plovdiv carry a model rating of 6.15 against 6.13 for Cherno More Varna. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Lokomotiv Plovdiv L-W-L-L-L; Cherno More Varna L-L-L-L-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.41 goals for Lokomotiv Plovdiv and 1.09 for Cherno More Varna. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv rate 0.35 in attack and 1.56 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cherno More Varna rate 0.50 and 2.13.
That points to 46% for over two and a half goals and 51% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 2-1 (9%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Cherno More Varna, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lokomotiv Plovdiv the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Lokomotiv Plovdiv against 1.09 for Cherno More Varna. Lokomotiv Plovdiv's attack/defence rating is 0.35/1.56 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/2.13 for Cherno More Varna.