Mlada Boleslav vs Baník Ostrava Czech Liga prediction & result
Final score: Mlada Boleslav 4-0 Baník Ostrava.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Mlada Boleslav, 28% draw, 28% Baník Ostrava — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Mlada Boleslav at 44% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Mlada Boleslav vs Baník Ostrava
Line-ups
- 59J. FloderG
- 13D. DonatD
- 44O. KarafiatD
- 3M. KralikD
- 11M. HybsD
- 77D. PechM
- 20S. JohnM
- 76J. Zika
- 28D. LanghamerM
- 21M. Subert
- 23J. KlimaF
- 47M. ObdrzalekG
- 42V. VorelG
- 32F. MatousekD
- 26M. ZachovalD
- 24D. MaresD
- 38F. KolarD
- 49J. KolarikM
- 9L. LetenayF
- 70J. BuryanF
- 23M. JedlickaG
- 44Y. Skyba
- 83R. NoghaD
- 42J. MicekD
- 5J. BoulaM
- 34A. BeweneM
- 18D. PlankaM
- 28F. KubalaM
- 95D. HolzerM
- 22V. SkrkonF
- 15V. JureckaF
- 1V. BudinskyG
- 17M. FrydrychD
- 37M. ChalusD
- 16M. DyachukD
- 81M. KmetD
- 55A. MusakM
- 7D. GilbertM
- 19F. SanclM
- 8A. TraoreM
Form going into Mlada Boleslav vs Baník Ostrava
Mlada Boleslav
- W2-1Slovácko22 August 2026
Baník Ostrava
- W1-0Sigma Olomouc29 August 2026
- W1-0Artis16 August 2026
- L1-2away to Hradec Králové9 August 2026
- L0-4Slavia Praha1 August 2026
- W1-0away to Zlin25 July 2026
What these results say
- Baník Ostrava scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Mlada Boleslav | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 12 | +5 | 17 |
| 12 | Baník Ostrava | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Mlada Boleslav vs Baník Ostrava
- 6 September 2026Mlada Boleslav 4–0 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
- 2 May 2026Baník Ostrava 0–0 Mlada BoleslavCzech Liga
- 22 February 2026Baník Ostrava 0–0 Mlada BoleslavCzech Liga
- 21 September 2025Mlada Boleslav 1–1 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
- 9 March 2025Baník Ostrava 2–1 Mlada BoleslavCzech Liga
- 6 October 2024Mlada Boleslav 0–0 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Mlada Boleslav and Baník Ostrava
Mlada Boleslav
GoalsAssists
- M. Šubert61
- J. Klíma41
- S. John33
Baník Ostrava
No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.