Mlada Boleslav
vs
Baník Ostrava
Czech Liga prediction
The model makes it 41% Mlada Boleslav, 25% draw, 34% Baník Ostrava — fair odds of 2.44, 4.00 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Mlada Boleslav 1.65, Baník Ostrava 1.48.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Mlada Boleslav
- W2-1Slovácko22 August 2026
- D1-1away to Pardubice15 August 2026
- W2-0Sparta Praha8 August 2026
- D2-2away to Sigma Olomouc2 August 2026
- W4-2away to Artis27 July 2026
Baník Ostrava
- W1-0Artis16 August 2026
- L1-2away to Hradec Králové9 August 2026
- L0-4Slavia Praha1 August 2026
- W1-0away to Zlin25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Mlada Boleslav | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 11 |
| 9 | Baník Ostrava | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Mlada Boleslav
- J. Klíma3 goals1 assists
Baník Ostrava
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Mlada Boleslav carry a model rating of 6.62 against 6.72 for Baník Ostrava. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Mlada Boleslav W-D-W-D-W; Baník Ostrava W-L-L-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.65 goals for Mlada Boleslav and 1.48 for Baník Ostrava. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Mlada Boleslav rate 0.88 in attack and 1.41 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Baník Ostrava rate 0.75 and 0.99.
That points to 60% for over two and a half goals and 63% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Mlada Boleslav the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav against 1.48 for Baník Ostrava. Mlada Boleslav's attack/defence rating is 0.88/1.41 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/0.99 for Baník Ostrava.