Cruz Azul vs Santos Laguna Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Cruz Azul 1-0 Santos Laguna.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Cruz Azul, 27% draw, 26% Santos Laguna — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Cruz Azul at 47%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Cruz Azul vs Santos Laguna
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 23K. MierG
- 55R. GonzalezD
- 4W. DittaD
- 5J. OrozcoD
- 3O. CamposD
- 17A. GarciaM
- 19C. RodriguezM
- 16J. MarquezM
- 8A. PalavecinoM
- 18L. RomeroM
- 7N. IbanezF
- 1A. GudinoG
- 33G. PioviD
- 2A. MozoD
- 12A. MontesD
- 22J. RodarteD
- 20J. ParadelaF
- 6E. LiraM
- 10A. MontanoM
- 21G. FernandezF
- 1C. AcevedoG
- 3M. CuevasD
- 28J. PerezD
- 25F. SanchezD
- 14E. OronaD
- 193L. GomezD
- 77K. PalaciosM
- 8S. Mariscal MurraM
- 5A. LopezM
- 7D. GonzalezM
- 10E. BullaudeF
- 33H. HolguinG
- 4J. AbellaD
- 18F. PardoD
- 17E. EcheverriaD
- 6J. GuemezM
- 21F. VillalbaM
- 19E. AguirreF
- 24D. MedinaM
- 20E. LozanoM
Form going into Cruz Azul vs Santos Laguna
Cruz Azul
All competitions we cover
- W3-1away to Necaxa29 August 2026
- L0-2Atlas23 August 2026
- L1-2away to Club Tijuana17 August 2026
- L2-3Atlante FC2 August 2026
- W2-1Puebla22 July 2026
Santos Laguna
All competitions we cover
- D0-0Tigres UANL30 August 2026
- L2-3away to Puebla23 August 2026
- L0-1Guadalajara Chivas17 August 2026
- L0-3away to Club America2 August 2026
- L0-1Atlas26 July 2026
What these results say
- Cruz Azul conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cruz Azul scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Cruz Azul had three goals or more.
- Santos Laguna did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Santos Laguna failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Santos Laguna conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cruz Azul | 16 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 37 | 26 | +11 | 32 |
| 6 | Santos Laguna | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 20 | +3 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Cruz Azul and Santos Laguna
Cruz Azul
GoalsAssists
- A. Montaño65
- N. Ibáñez63
Santos Laguna
GoalsAssists
- Tahiel Adrián Jiménez Sánchez60
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Cruz Azul beat Santos Laguna 1–0. The model had made a win for Cruz Azul its most likely outcome, at 47%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: J. Paradela 89' for Cruz Azul. On expected goals it finished 1.54–0.42.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.