Levski Sofia
vs
CSKA 1948
First League prediction
The model makes it 57% Levski Sofia, 24% draw, 19% CSKA 1948 — fair odds of 1.75, 4.17 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Levski Sofia 1.84, CSKA 1948 0.96.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Levski Sofia
- W2-0Lokomotiv Plovdiv7 August 2026
- W3-0Septemvri Sofia1 August 2026
- W2-1away to Lokomotiv Sofia25 July 2026
- W2-1Dunav Ruse17 July 2026
CSKA 1948
- W4-1Cherno More Varna14 August 2026
- W3-1away to Lokomotiv Sofia8 August 2026
- W2-1Arda Kardzhali31 July 2026
- W2-1Botev Vratsa25 July 2026
- D2-2away to Spartak Varna17 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Levski Sofia | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 12 |
| 3 | CSKA 1948 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Levski Sofia vs CSKA 1948
- 25 May 2026CSKA 1948 0–0 Levski SofiaFirst League
- 2 May 2026Levski Sofia 1–0 CSKA 1948First League
- 22 February 2026CSKA 1948 1–3 Levski SofiaFirst League
- 31 August 2025Levski Sofia 2–1 CSKA 1948First League
- 3 April 2025Levski Sofia 2–0 CSKA 1948First League
- 15 September 2024CSKA 1948 2–4 Levski SofiaFirst League
Leading scorers
Levski Sofia
No league goals recorded yet.
CSKA 1948
- Frédéric Maciel1 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Levski Sofia carry a model rating of 6.71 against 6.52 for CSKA 1948. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Levski Sofia W-W-W-W; CSKA 1948 D-W-W-W-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.84 goals for Levski Sofia and 0.96 for CSKA 1948. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Levski Sofia rate 0.73 in attack and 0.99 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; CSKA 1948 rate 0.69 and 1.33.
That points to 53% for over two and a half goals and 52% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 1-0 (11%), 2-0 (10%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour CSKA 1948, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Levski Sofia the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Levski Sofia against 0.96 for CSKA 1948. Levski Sofia's attack/defence rating is 0.73/0.99 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.33 for CSKA 1948.