Heerenveen
vs
AZ Alkmaar
Eredivisie prediction
The model makes it 25% Heerenveen, 25% draw, 50% AZ Alkmaar — fair odds of 4.00, 4.00 and 2.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Heerenveen 1.12, AZ Alkmaar 1.67.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Heerenveen
- L0-2PEC Zwolle22 August 2026
- D2-2away to Ajax16 August 2026
- W1-0Twente9 August 2026
AZ Alkmaar
- W2-0away to Fortuna Sittard22 August 2026
- W4-1away to Utrecht15 August 2026
- W2-0ADO Den Haag8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Heerenveen | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 1 | AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | +7 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar
- 12 April 2026AZ Alkmaar 3–0 HeerenveenEredivisie
- 23 November 2025Heerenveen 3–1 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
- 22 May 2025AZ Alkmaar 4–1 HeerenveenEredivisie
- 2 March 2025Heerenveen 3–1 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
- 14 September 2024AZ Alkmaar 9–1 HeerenveenEredivisie
- 28 January 2024Heerenveen 2–2 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
Leading scorers
Heerenveen
- J. Trenskow1 goals1 assists
AZ Alkmaar
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Heerenveen carry a model rating of 6.54 against 6.9 for AZ Alkmaar. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Heerenveen W-D-L; AZ Alkmaar W-W-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.12 goals for Heerenveen and 1.67 for AZ Alkmaar. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Heerenveen rate 0.69 in attack and 1.28 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; AZ Alkmaar rate 0.93 and 0.86.
That points to 53% for over two and a half goals and 55% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AZ Alkmaar the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Heerenveen against 1.67 for AZ Alkmaar. Heerenveen's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.28 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.93/0.86 for AZ Alkmaar.