Groningen
vs
Twente
Eredivisie prediction
The model makes it 32% Groningen, 27% draw, 41% Twente — fair odds of 3.13, 3.70 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Groningen 1.24, Twente 1.45.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Groningen
- W4-1away to ADO Den Haag16 August 2026
- W2-1Utrecht9 August 2026
Twente
- W3-1PEC Zwolle16 August 2026
- L0-1away to Heerenveen9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Groningen | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 12 | Twente | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Groningen vs Twente
- 22 February 2026Twente 2–1 GroningenEredivisie
- 2 November 2025Groningen 1–1 TwenteEredivisie
- 1 March 2025Groningen 1–1 TwenteEredivisie
- 15 December 2024Twente 2–0 GroningenEredivisie
- 5 February 2023Groningen 1–1 TwenteEredivisie
- 16 October 2022Twente 3–0 GroningenEredivisie
Leading scorers
Groningen
- T. van Bergen2 goals1 assists
- B. Willumsson2 goals
Twente
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Groningen carry a model rating of 6.63 against 6.86 for Twente. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Groningen W-W; Twente L-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.24 goals for Groningen and 1.45 for Twente. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Groningen rate 0.74 in attack and 1.15 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Twente rate 0.90 and 0.89.
That points to 50% for over two and a half goals and 55% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Groningen, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Twente the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Groningen against 1.45 for Twente. Groningen's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.15 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.9/0.89 for Twente.