Spartak Varna
vs
CSKA Sofia
First League prediction
The model makes it 40% Spartak Varna, 31% draw, 29% CSKA Sofia — fair odds of 2.50, 3.23 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Spartak Varna 1.19, CSKA Sofia 0.97.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 37%, under 2.5: 63%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Spartak Varna
- L0-1Septemvri Sofia17 August 2026
- L2-3away to Botev Plovdiv10 August 2026
- W1-0Lokomotiv Plovdiv3 August 2026
- W3-0away to Cherno More Varna26 July 2026
- D2-2CSKA 194817 July 2026
CSKA Sofia
- W5-0Botev Vratsa16 August 2026
- W3-0away to Septemvri Sofia9 August 2026
- W2-1Dunav Ruse2 August 2026
- W3-2Botev Plovdiv27 July 2026
- D0-0away to Slavia Sofia20 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Spartak Varna | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 7 |
| 2 | CSKA Sofia | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 3 | +10 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Spartak Varna vs CSKA Sofia
- 29 November 2025Spartak Varna 0–4 CSKA SofiaFirst League
- 26 July 2025CSKA Sofia 1–1 Spartak VarnaFirst League
- 13 May 2025CSKA Sofia 5–0 Spartak VarnaFirst League
- 26 April 2025Spartak Varna 0–1 CSKA SofiaFirst League
- 15 December 2024Spartak Varna 2–3 CSKA SofiaCup
- 3 December 2024CSKA Sofia 3–1 Spartak VarnaFirst League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Spartak Varna carry a model rating of 6.46 against 6.56 for CSKA Sofia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Spartak Varna D-W-W-L-L; CSKA Sofia D-W-W-W-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.19 goals for Spartak Varna and 0.97 for CSKA Sofia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Spartak Varna rate 0.63 in attack and 1.38 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; CSKA Sofia rate 0.50 and 1.00.
That points to 37% for over two and a half goals and 44% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (13%), 0-0 (12%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour CSKA Sofia, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Spartak Varna the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Spartak Varna against 0.97 for CSKA Sofia. Spartak Varna's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.38 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/1 for CSKA Sofia.