5 September 2026, 16:00 UTC

Spartak Varna vs CSKA Sofia First League prediction & result

Stadion Spartak, Varna
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Spartak Varna 1-1 CSKA Sofia.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% Spartak Varna, 31% draw, 36% CSKA Sofia — fair odds of 3.03, 3.23 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts CSKA Sofia at 36% here. Across 3,056 settled matches (as of 6 October 2026), 2,416 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Spartak Varna3%Draw93%CSKA Sofia4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

18'
⚽I. Pittasassist: A. Martino
⚽B. Hanneassist: Jota Lopes
33'
36'
Ángelo Martino
46'
🔁F. Rodriguezout: J. Gbamin
Anton Ivanov
51'
57'
🔁M. Ebongout: C. Itu
🔁R. Sousaout: T. Marinov
58'
🔁Jota Lopesout: A. Gomes
58'
Plamen Iliev
65'
🔁D. Valverdeout: D. Lozev
70'
70'
🔁J. Eto'oout: I. Solet
77'
Pastor
🔁A. Ivanovout: Bua
77'
🔁A. Ahmedovout: T. Chunchukov
77'
81'
🔁B. Jordaoout: Leo Pereira
90+3'
Jean-Philippe Gbamin

Line-ups

Spartak Varna 4-2-3-1
  • 23P. IlievG
  • 76D. ValverdeM
  • 44A. GranchovD
  • 45J. TshitokuD
  • 4B. IvanovD
  • 6R. SousaM
  • 19S. MajorM
  • 10Jota LopesM
  • 11B. HanneM
  • 77A. IvanovM
  • 70A. AhmedovF
Substitutes
  • 1P. VictorG
  • 3M. Juric-PetrasiloD
  • 7Bua
  • 9T. ChunchukovF
  • 17T. MarinovM
  • 20D. LozevD
  • 80A. GomesF
  • 82T. SilvaM
  • 99G. TrifonovF
Coach: Yasen Petrov
CSKA Sofia 4-3-3
  • 21F. LapoukhovG
  • 2PastorD
  • 14T. IvanovD
  • 32F. RodriguezD
  • 17A. MartinoD
  • 7M. EbongM
  • 6B. JordaoM
  • 8S. SensiM
  • 99J. Eto'oM
  • 9L. GodoyF
  • 28I. PittasF
Substitutes
  • 3T. OuorouD
  • 4D. Almeida
  • 5J. GbaminD
  • 19A. YordanovD
  • 25D. EvtimovG
  • 30P. PanayotovM
  • 34V. Kaymakanov
  • 38Leo PereiraM
  • 67C. Itu
Coach: Hristo Yanev

Form going into Spartak Varna vs CSKA Sofia

Spartak Varna

  • D1-1Ludogorets30 August 2026
  • L0-6away to Levski Sofia22 August 2026

CSKA Sofia

  • W3-1Cherno More Varna30 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

First League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Spartak Varna102441015-510
2CSKA Sofia10730247+1724

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Spartak Varna vs CSKA Sofia

  • 29 November 2025Spartak Varna 0–4 CSKA SofiaFirst League
  • 26 July 2025CSKA Sofia 1–1 Spartak VarnaFirst League
  • 13 May 2025CSKA Sofia 5–0 Spartak VarnaFirst League
  • 26 April 2025Spartak Varna 0–1 CSKA SofiaFirst League
  • 15 December 2024Spartak Varna 2–3 CSKA SofiaCup
  • 3 December 2024CSKA Sofia 3–1 Spartak VarnaFirst League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.